“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-10-07
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/2sl/the_irrationality_game/2qlc?c=1” on 2010-10-07
• jasticE estimated 8% on 2010-10-14
• saturn estimated 1% on 2012-03-28
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-07-04.
• kuudes said “It is not yet 2015-10-06.” on 2015-07-06
• kuudes   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-07-06.
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-07-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-07-06
• RandomThinker said “what’s major mean? I’m sure there’s a mad scientist somewhere in the billion people in China who wants this.” on 2015-07-07
• David estimated 0% on 2015-07-25
• average_joe estimated 2% on 2015-08-28
• Josh Holland estimated 1% on 2015-09-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-10-07.