HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89.

Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.

• jaibot estimated 50% on 2013-07-02
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2013-07-02
• gwern estimated 4% and said “she wasn’t even there?” on 2013-07-03
• ShIxtan estimated 1% on 2013-07-03
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2013-07-03
• JoshuaZ said “gwern, I think that jaibot’s hypothesis is implying some sort of time travel, possibly with polymorphing. ” on 2013-07-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-07-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Updated strongly on this based on http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hwf/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ax6 which seems really plausible. ” on 2013-07-04
• Kurosymph estimated 0% on 2013-07-05
• jaibot   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-06.
• JoshuaZ said “I don’t think this should be judged wrong yet. ” on 2013-07-06