HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
- ygert estimated 3% on 2013-07-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-03
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2013-07-03
- gwern estimated 10% and said “I don’t see any legitimate reason for it to turn out that way as we enter the endgame” on 2013-07-04
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-01” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-04
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-04
- Benja estimated 10% on 2013-07-04
- ShIxtan estimated 1% on 2013-07-05
- Jordan_Hoyt estimated 5% on 2013-07-09
- William-Quixote estimated 10% on 2013-07-12
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-13
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-18
- Osuniev estimated 1% and said ““the very stars in heaven” is way too confusing a way of saying the Black family.” on 2013-08-02
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-03” on 2013-08-02
- nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
- ygert estimated 1% on 2013-08-23
- Grognor estimated 1% on 2014-01-31
- jbluphin estimated 5% on 2014-02-01
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2014-04-03” on 2014-02-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2014-12-27
- ygert judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.