'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' —Skatche

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39pd” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “fully expect more riots from the weaker members of the EU. I doubt the greeks are done, for example. will judge this if there are >=2 riots in capitals” on 2011-01-10
• Konkvistador estimated 95% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2011-10-10
• gwern said “in google news, I see the UK London riots, Greek Athens riots, and some French riots in Amiens… which is pretty much where things stood when this was made. hm. wrong?” on 2012-08-28
• RandomThinker said “there weren’t that many riots when you started this prediction. Continuing kind of implies that the riots continue, it’s more like sporadic. ” on 2012-10-03
• JoshuaZ said “This one is really hard to judge. ” on 2012-11-08
• Tuxedage   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-13.