'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' —Skatche

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

  • gwern estimated 90% on 2011-01-10
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39pdon 2011-01-10
  • gwern said “fully expect more riots from the weaker members of the EU. I doubt the greeks are done, for example. will judge this if there are >=2 riots in capitalson 2011-01-10
  • Konkvistador estimated 95% on 2011-10-08
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2011-10-10
  • gwern said “in google news, I see the UK London riots, Greek Athens riots, and some French riots in Amiens… which is pretty much where things stood when this was made. hm. wrong?on 2012-08-28
  • RandomThinker said “there weren’t that many riots when you started this prediction. Continuing kind of implies that the riots continue, it’s more like sporadic. on 2012-10-03
  • JoshuaZ said “This one is really hard to judge. on 2012-11-08
  • Tuxedage  judged this prediction right on 2013-01-13.

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