The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year.

Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.

• gwern estimated 55% on 2014-03-07
• gwern said “context: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/24253” on 2014-03-07
• gwern said “(the reporter is Leah McGrath, in case there’s any confusion)” on 2014-03-07
• lavalamp estimated 45% and said “Does that ever even happen? She got them tons of clicks, I’m sure. Will newsweek care that it (probably) wasn’t accurate? ” on 2014-03-07
• gwern estimated 70% and said “with denials by both Dorian and Satoshi, this looks really really bad for Newsweek. heads will roll.” on 2014-03-07
• drewmm estimated 15% on 2014-03-07
• Tenoke estimated 60% on 2014-03-07
• Tenoke estimated 10% and said “‘Newsweek stands strongly behind Ms. Goodman and her article’ http://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-231242” on 2014-03-07
• tedks estimated 5% on 2014-03-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2014-03-07
• adbge estimated 40% on 2014-03-07
• RandomThinker said “Does this include quitting? Now she’s famous, she’ll probably get a better job offer.” on 2014-03-07
• chemotaxis101 estimated 40% and said “https://medium.com/p/ec57f44b6a01” on 2014-03-11
• fela estimated 46% on 2014-03-14
• procran estimated 20% on 2014-03-19
• aarongertler estimated 20% and said “Unfortunately, this isn’t a common thing in the media world. I doubt that enough outrage will be sustained to make this happen.” on 2014-03-23
• kuudes estimated 5% on 2015-01-12
• gwern said “published a piece with Newsweek last month. a lesson learned, I guess – Newsweek is now a rag.” on 2015-03-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-07.