By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-09-02
  • bobpage estimated 5% and said “Funny thing about consensus is that it doesn’t need to resemble truthon 2011-09-02
  • JoshuaZ said “Yes, I assign most of that 1% to an orchestrated propaganda campaign by some very rich entity. on 2011-09-02
  • gwern estimated 0% on 2011-09-03
  • fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-05
  • Alexander Kruel estimated 95% and said ““In a 2008 poll of 17 countries, 15% of those surveyed believed the US government was responsible for the attacks, 7% believed Israel was and another 7% believed…” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_conspiracy_theorieson 2011-09-05
  • Alexander Kruel estimated 5% and said “Whoops…on 2011-09-05
  • Ken estimated 0% on 2011-09-10
  • Alexander Kruel said “Is it possible to delete the first prediction that I made by mistake? Someone came across this page and thought that I am a nutter :’-(on 2012-01-08
  • Alexander Kruel estimated 1% on 2012-01-08
  • JoshuaZ said “No. Having a feature which allowed to flip a prediction when there’s a lot due would be good. A major hit it seems to a lot of the calculated confidences people have is inputing 1-p rather than p. on 2012-01-08
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 1% on 2012-09-29
  • Malgidus estimated 0% on 2013-03-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09

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