By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-09-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% and said “Funny thing about consensus is that it doesn’t need to resemble truth” on 2011-09-02
• JoshuaZ said “Yes, I assign most of that 1% to an orchestrated propaganda campaign by some very rich entity. ” on 2011-09-02
• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-09-03
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-05
• Alexander Kruel estimated 95% and said ““In a 2008 poll of 17 countries, 15% of those surveyed believed the US government was responsible for the attacks, 7% believed Israel was and another 7% believed…” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_conspiracy_theories” on 2011-09-05
• Alexander Kruel estimated 5% and said “Whoops…” on 2011-09-05
• Ken estimated 0% on 2011-09-10
• Alexander Kruel said “Is it possible to delete the first prediction that I made by mistake? Someone came across this page and thought that I am a nutter :’-(” on 2012-01-08
• Alexander Kruel estimated 1% on 2012-01-08
• JoshuaZ said “No. Having a feature which allowed to flip a prediction when there’s a lot due would be good. A major hit it seems to a lot of the calculated confidences people have is inputing 1-p rather than p. ” on 2012-01-08
• Pablo estimated 1% on 2012-09-29
• Malgidus estimated 0% on 2013-03-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-03