gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-12-17
• gwern said “historical: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/Analytics_www.gwern.net_20101001-20111216_%28AllSourcesReport%29.pdf only ever twice passed 2,000 total visits. current: 6,350 / 7 = 907 (on the strength of some twitter storms and prominent links)” on 2011-12-17
• gwern said “referral prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4894” on 2011-12-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-12-17
• fergus estimated 70% on 2011-12-19
• gwern said “doing my review of the last 6 months, I found 191,015 page-views (average 1032/day) by 79,346 visitors, so 115,585 visits / 185 days = 624 visits per day.” on 2012-01-03
• Larklight estimated 50% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “last 6 months: 570,997 page-views; in 366,301 visits or average 2012/day…” on 2012-07-02
• alecbrooks estimated 75% on 2012-11-17
• gwern said “previous comment was borne out: still >2k visits a day! http://dl.dropbox.com/u/85192141/Analytics%20www.gwern.net%20All%20Traffic%2020121210-20121216.pdf 2260/day over the past week. marking wrong.” on 2012-12-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-17.