Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “this will be hard to judge. the tea party supposedly has like 25% of the electorate, so I figure I will judge this as right either if a split is majorly reported and conventional wisdom, or the libertarian candidate gets >5% of the popular vote” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2012-01-02
• faws estimated 24% on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 20% on 2012-01-03
• kilobug estimated 20% on 2012-09-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.