Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease”

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “original: FiftyTwo 90% http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5lez” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “I will decide this based on number of hits in Google News, US edition, ‘past month’. Result for me today was: 150 results. next january, will rerun search” on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2012-01-03
• siscoking estimated 0% and said “If I check out the bitcoin craze at the moment I dont see why BT coverage should decrease” on 2012-01-06
• gwern said “note the formulation; this is about coverage in December 2012 compared to coverage in December 2011. there may be another bubble forming now in January 2012, but to extrapolate from that to coverage in a year…? 0% is a very bad idea.” on 2012-01-06
• siscoking said “Lets see in what the Bitcoin will change to. A into a “big monster” or B “a little dream” ” on 2012-01-07
• lavalamp estimated 34% on 2012-06-08
• lavalamp said “How exactly did you do your search, gwern? I just attempted it, and it showed 15 pages (=150 results) but no count. I’m thinking maybe they just cap the number of results they show.” on 2012-12-21
• gwern said “‘bitcoin’, otherwise as described” on 2012-12-21
• gwern said “google news is no longer reporting hitcounts… oy vey. withdrawing.” on 2013-01-01
• gwern withdrew the prediction on 2013-01-01
• lavalamp said “I see “132,000” as the number of hits in the past month when searching in “all news”.” on 2014-01-04