Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so.

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.

• HonoreDB estimated 30% on 2012-01-20
• RobertLumley estimated 35% and said “Hard to judge because I’m not sure who exactly has the ability to change PB.” on 2012-01-20
• Anubhav estimated 20% and said “I’m guessing they won’t turn down anyone who offers to help. (Last time I asked about mucking around with the source code, Jayson pointed me to the github repo with a ‘Do you know Ruby?’)” on 2012-01-20
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-01-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2012-01-22
• Jayson Virissimo said “A year is a fairly long time and I just picked up a copy of Learn Ruby the Hard Way.” on 2012-01-22
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.