George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-04-07
• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-07
• jeremysalwen estimated 30% on 2012-04-11
• Ken estimated 15% on 2012-04-11
• RandomThinker estimated 40% and said “He’ll be charged; harder to get convicted.” on 2012-04-11
• Jayson Virissimo said ““George Zimmerman has been charged with second-degree murder in the death of Trayvon Martin.” -http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2012/0411/George-Zimmerman-charged-in-Trayvon-Martin-case-Why-now-and-what-next” on 2012-04-12
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-04-14
• Futschi estimated 75% and said “Too bad it takes a public outcry for the justice system to actually work. That shouldn’t be necessary.” on 2012-04-14
• gwern said “given the general dishonesty of anti-zimmerman advocates (eg. the fired NBC producer), I wouldn’t be too surprised if the case fell apart on trial, although since he has been charged, I’d raise my own estimate…” on 2012-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-04-16
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% and said “Up slightly per the charges and down even more per the newly released picture of Zimmerman’s bloody head.” on 2012-04-21
• dquijano estimated 25% on 2012-04-21
• beo_shaffer estimated 50% on 2012-04-23
• Sarokrae estimated 60% on 2012-04-29
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.