Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.

• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2015-08-10
• JoshuaZ said “Note to self: https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/394552/1689472 Neoplatonist estimates 100%. Remind him when he’s wrong. ” on 2015-08-10
• btrettel estimated 3% on 2015-08-10
• silacoid estimated 1% and said “Would be hilarious if it happened though… ” on 2015-08-12
• ArturoGoosnargh estimated 2% on 2015-08-12
• HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2015-08-13
• supinf estimated 3% on 2015-08-14
• clemux estimated 0% on 2015-08-15
• holycow81 estimated 5% on 2015-08-15
• Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 2% on 2015-08-16
• Afforess estimated 2% on 2015-08-17
• sflicht estimated 5% on 2015-08-25
• sdr estimated 98% and said “Proxying Scott Adams: "If I had to put a number on my prediction, I would say a 98% chance of Trump winning the whole thing. " http://blog.dilbert.com/post/127791494211/nate-silver-gives-trump-2-chance-of-getting” on 2015-08-31
• sdr estimated 10% and said “Adding my own estimate based on current polls” on 2015-08-31
• JoshuaZ said “Adams is so often so overconfident about so many things, maybe instead of proxying him, someone should just have an account to note his predictions. ” on 2015-08-31
• JoshuaZ said “Otherwise you are going to end up giving yourself a pretty severe accuracy hit. ” on 2015-08-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 66% on 2015-09-01
• Andrew MacFie estimated 10% on 2015-09-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-09-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Updating again based on http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6” on 2015-09-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2015-09-07
• Jayson Virissimo said “I’m thinking he could be Hillary if he was matched up with her.” on 2015-09-07
• Quint Guvernator estimated 2% on 2015-10-13
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Unpopular with women and hispanic voters.” on 2015-10-14
• danielfilan estimated 5% on 2015-10-14
• sflicht estimated 6% on 2015-10-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-10-26
• ChristianKl estimated 3% on 2015-11-01
• qznc estimated 20% on 2015-11-11
• hedges estimated 20% on 2015-11-13
• Andrew MacFie estimated 15% on 2015-11-22
• Afforess estimated 10% and said “Adjusting upwards from 2%, based on the increased likelihood of a Trump Republican ticket.” on 2015-12-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2015-12-08
• Raahul_Kumar said “I agree with Nate Silver. Trump will fade when it comes to actual election time.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/” on 2015-12-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 14% on 2016-01-17
• Quint Guvernator estimated 18% on 2016-02-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2016-02-15
• Afforess estimated 60% and said “Trump has pretty good odds of being the Republican nominee, so adjusting upwards.” on 2016-02-28
• artir estimated 20% on 2016-03-13
• Andrew MacFie estimated 29% on 2016-03-23
• regex estimated 40% and said “Whoever wins, we all lose. ” on 2016-05-16
• RoryS estimated 35% on 2016-05-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 61% on 2016-05-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2016-05-16
• holycow81 estimated 50% on 2016-05-17
• HonoreDB estimated 30% on 2016-05-17
• NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2016-07-19
• NathanMcKnight estimated 22% and said “^^^Oops…that 1% was a typo.” on 2016-07-19
• regex estimated 65% and said “Hilary is crumbling. Debates should be interesting.” on 2016-09-23
• regex estimated 80% and said “Doubling down and calling it pretty much for sure now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/” on 2016-09-24
• NathanMcKnight estimated 19% on 2016-09-26
• two2thehead estimated 20% on 2016-09-27
• two2thehead estimated 20% on 2016-09-27
• Andrew MacFie estimated 40% on 2016-10-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2016-10-13
• two2thehead estimated 10% on 2016-10-13
• Andrew MacFie estimated 25% on 2016-11-07
• Andrew MacFie estimated 90% on 2016-11-09
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.