“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/11on 2010-07-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “Obvious candidates are people between 1900 and 2000. That’s a lot of people. And medicine is improving. Only need one. on 2011-05-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “I meant “obvious candidates are people born between 1990 and 2000”. on 2011-05-26
  • Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav estimated 90% and said “Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.on 2011-10-10
  • faws estimated 47% and said “The adverb “still” seems to exclude cryonics.on 2011-11-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Less optimistic. Longevity techs seems to be running into a lot of problems. on 2012-05-27
  • RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-05-27
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-05-28
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 50% and said “Steve Austad made a very similar prediction: http://classic.the-scientist.com/?articles.viewon 2012-10-01
  • Malgidus estimated 90% and said “Excluding cryonics. Excluding definitions of “human”. Taking 10% off for existential risk.on 2013-03-27

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