Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide.

Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• ygert estimated 15% on 2013-01-13
• ygert on 2013-01-13
• ygert estimated 8% and said “Actually, this need two things: not only that it was not suicide, but also that it is discovered. So, I am adjusting my estimate.” on 2013-01-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-01-13
• army1987 said ““found” is very vague — has Kurt Cobain been “found” to not commit suicide?” on 2013-01-13
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-13
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% on 2013-01-13
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-01-14
• Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• simplicio estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-01-16
• saturn estimated 2% on 2013-01-16
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2013-01-16
• ewang estimated 0% on 2013-01-19
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-01-21
• ygert estimated 5% on 2013-01-23
• drethelin estimated 1% and said “Considering the power of the entities he was against and that they were already prepared to destroy his life with the means they already had, I don’t see why they would have him killed. He also had a history of depression.” on 2013-01-25
• adam_strandberg estimated 1% on 2013-02-09
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-06-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-06-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.