The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39j5” on 2011-01-06
• gimpf estimated 60% on 2011-01-09
• fergus estimated 80% on 2011-08-18
• Konkvistador estimated 99% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2011-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-31.