'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/3ae0” on 2011-01-10
• scav estimated 60% on 2011-01-11
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-01-11
• Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-07-21
• gwern said “see also, him or successor still end in charge end of 2012: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3243” on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “well drat https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/world/asia/kim-jong-il-is-dead.html just 13 days to go! so close!” on 2011-12-19
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-19.
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-19.