By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-09-21
• JoshuaZ said “Chance that someone will lie about it. Look how there have been marginal people who have claimed to be involved in alien projects. This is a superprediction of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3426 tags [9/11 truth][politics]” on 2011-09-21
• gwern estimated 10% and said “glad you were clearer because when I saw it I thought ‘well, 0% for a major political appointee, but any random govt official, in their thousands and millions? that seems pretty likely at some point’. 10% is a guess on my part” on 2011-09-21
• fergus estimated 5% on 2011-09-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2011-09-22
• faws estimated 15% on 2011-09-23
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 55% and said “but who would believe them?” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2019-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.