PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-11-15
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
  • gwern estimated 35% and said “easy to take a month-long break” on 2011-11-15
  • Anubhav estimated 40% and said “A better predictions registry might spring up… ” on 2011-11-16
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 14% on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Other prediction registries, just taking a break, forced breaks (such as hospitalization or other emergencies), etc. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 20% on 2012-04-29
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-01.