HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-07
• spqr0a1 estimated 7% on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 5% and said “Didn’t Eliezer, somewhere, respond to this idea with “a fanatic is someone who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject”?” on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% and said “Eliezer said that he might bring up AI ‘as an analogy’, in the unlikely event that there was a situation where it didn’t ‘suck like a massive black-hole’.” on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-09-17
• Raziel estimated 10% on 2013-03-07
• Tuxedage estimated 2% on 2013-03-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2013-03-10
• gwern estimated 3% and said “dropping based on how MoR has developed since & Oscar’s quote; for a more general form of this prediction, see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/21882” on 2013-10-28
• ChristianKl estimated 65% on 2013-10-29
• Mathir25 estimated 0% and said “Eliezer has made comments to the effect that this won’t happen, I believe him because it would be a (very) bad idea from any perspective, and the story doesn’t seem to leave room for it.” on 2013-10-29
• ygert estimated 0% on 2013-10-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-10-29
• Vulture estimated 3% on 2014-01-21
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.