Unjudged Predictions
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At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23; known on 2021-02-01.
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“If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2021-02-01.
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The queen of England will be killed by muslims(aka terrorists). ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01; known on 2021-02-01; judged unknown by sty.silver on 2022-07-19.
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19.12.1982 Solitärer fibröser Tumor myxoides Stroma/Hämangioperizytom Schwannom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-01-27.
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Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.
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L frontal pilocytic astrocytoma MRN: 036220407 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mohalagha1987 on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-25.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16.
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on time ( 40% confidence )
Created by linz07 on 2020-12-06; known on 2021-01-16.
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AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bly on 2019-12-04; known on 2021-01-16.
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I will stick to nopo tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.
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I can finish MECHANICS OF MATERIAL homework today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by gohbinwei on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.
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wear invisalign tomorrow for at least 6 hours ( 25% confidence )
Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.
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I get banned from GoodReads ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-09; known on 2021-01-10; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2021-01-02.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.
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I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2019-11-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-06-14; known on 2021-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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at least 2 political prisoners executed in US ( 84% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances ( 68% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.
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'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.