Unjudged Predictions
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017 ( 19% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 38% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.
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larry flynt pays out 10m$ ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.
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Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.
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Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction) ( 75% confidence )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
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“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.
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There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by SRA311B on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-12-31.
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Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.
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Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.
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Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.
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“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.
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Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-30.
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Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2020-12-27.
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Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-26.
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Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. —Julius Baer wealth report ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.