Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known 5 days ago.

Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known 12 days ago.

I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known 13 days ago.

Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known 16 days ago.

Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known 18 days ago.

Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory ( 99% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2024-01-01; known 20 days ago.

Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2024-10-20.

Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.

Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.

Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.

General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-02; known on 2024-09-01.

Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.

Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.

The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2024-08-16.

First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.

If the “impossible NASA EmDrive” turns out to be working, it will be due to the emission of some kind of EM radiation (thermal radiation, microwave leakage, etc.) by the experimental setup, unaccounted as of now (08/10/2014). That is, the engine either do ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by maxikov on 2014-08-10; known on 2024-08-10.

Sony will be bought by other company in 10 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2024-08-02.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-07-11.

Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ystasyuk on 2019-07-10; known on 2024-07-10.

Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.

Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.

Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.

BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections ( 80% confidence )

Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve below 250,000 on May 31 2024 ( 40% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2024-06-05.

Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.

at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.

Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.

I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.

My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by influnza on 2014-04-30; known on 2024-04-30.

The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.

I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.

there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.

I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2024-04-09.