Unjudged Predictions
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The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known about 17 hours ago.
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I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known 12 days ago.
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there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known 15 days ago.
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I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known 17 days ago.
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StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known 19 days ago.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.
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Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-13; known on 2024-03-12.
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If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.
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(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. ( 75% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-08-28; known on 2024-03-03.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )
Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.
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the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl ( 100% confidence )
Created by mdr111 on 2023-08-13; known on 2024-02-15.
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The eagles don't win the superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by kscreen24 on 2023-11-13; known on 2024-02-15.
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Eagles win superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by RyanS on 2023-10-31; known on 2024-02-14.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 ( 79% confidence )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.
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[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )
Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.
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The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.
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Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.
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'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.