Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known 1 day ago.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.

Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known 1 day ago.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.

By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known 1 day ago.

PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known 2 days ago.

Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known 5 days ago.

bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known 11 days ago.

Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known 20 days ago.

I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known 24 days ago.

Adding " wedding" to the middle of ~20-token prompts, will, on average, increase wedding-related wordcount relative to adding to the beginning or end. ( 60% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-02.

From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2023-05-02.

The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.

Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known on 2023-05-02.

Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-06; known on 2023-05-01.

example prediction test ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25.

When will GCSE Exam Qs be live on the platform for students? Background: Exam Qs must be available for use by students on the platform for bio, chem, and phys, for AQA, Edexcel & IGCSE. Outcome: April 5th – 25th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.

mccabe will go to jail or be found dead ( 80% confidence )

Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-24; known on 2023-04-24.

During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up vigorous campaigns against the Democrat. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-11-05; known on 2023-04-21.

Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.

I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.

[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The + 64 coefficient additions generally produce less wedding-focused completions than +4 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.

[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The +/- 64 coefficient additions produce less coherent behavior ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.

We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13.

Test ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sortega on 2023-04-08; known on 2023-04-08.

It will rain ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nadrien on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-07.

It will rain tomorrow in New York ( 60% confidence )

Created by jjb7077 on 2023-04-02; known on 2023-04-03.

UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.

By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.

test ( 100% confidence )

Created by trey on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-03-28.

(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )

Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-03-20; known on 2023-03-27.

NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-03-18.

Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.

After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known on 2023-03-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.

At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.

Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 10% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.