Unjudged Predictions
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known 5 days ago.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known 5 days ago.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known 6 days ago.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known 7 days ago.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known 7 days ago.
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SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known 16 days ago.
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Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ystasyuk on 2019-07-10; known 16 days ago.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known 27 days ago.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.
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Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.
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BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections ( 80% confidence )
Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.
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Strategic Petroleum Reserve below 250,000 on May 31 2024 ( 40% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2024-06-05.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.
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legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
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I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.
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My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by influnza on 2014-04-30; known on 2024-04-30.
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The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.
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I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.
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there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.
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I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2024-04-09.
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StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.
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Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-13; known on 2024-03-12.
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If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.
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(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. ( 75% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-08-28; known on 2024-03-03.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )
Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.
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the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl ( 100% confidence )
Created by mdr111 on 2023-08-13; known on 2024-02-15.
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The eagles don't win the superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by kscreen24 on 2023-11-13; known on 2024-02-15.
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Eagles win superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by RyanS on 2023-10-31; known on 2024-02-14.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 ( 79% confidence )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.
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I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.