PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	76%	88%	92%
Sample Size	8699	11984	12372	12588	23536	6258	75437

Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 27 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro about 13 hours ago.

Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known about 21 hours ago; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman about 19 hours ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 20% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged right by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.

I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known 5 days ago; judged right by Adam Zerner 5 days ago.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath 12 days ago.

Fewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix 14 days ago.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 17 days ago.

In ten days, we will still live on the farm. ( 100% confidence )

Created by MatrixJedi 27 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by MatrixJedi 17 days ago.

Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital 17 days ago.

Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known 17 days ago; judged right by batemancapital 17 days ago.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )