Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9557 | 13064 | 13645 | 14196 | 25906 | 6958 | 83326 |
Judged Predictions
-
Politics, US – Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known in 25 days; judged right by jbeshir about 13 hours ago.
-
Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 22 hours ago; judged right by Cato 1 day ago.
-
Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel 2 days ago.
-
COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 6 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 6 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Tech – Apple announces an ARM-based device running macOS for launch in 2020 at WWDC 2020. ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Tech – Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Tech – Apple announces a version of Xcode for at least some devices running iOS or iPadOS during WWDC. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
Tech – Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
-
There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-30; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by sty.silver 3 days ago.
-
Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
-
Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
-
Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
-
Vote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin 20 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
-
COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 5 days ago.
-
Arsenal do not lose today. ( 89% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell 6 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by MikeMitchell 5 days ago.
-
I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by btrettel 5 days ago.
-
[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Ryan + Andrew ( 35% confidence )
Created by Deepak 7 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by Deepak 6 days ago.
-
[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck ( 40% confidence )
Created by Deepak 7 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Deepak 6 days ago.
-
[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph ( 10% confidence )
Created by Deepak 7 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Deepak 6 days ago.
-
[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan ( 15% confidence )
Created by Deepak 7 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Deepak 6 days ago.
-
All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.
-
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 7 days ago.
-
U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by batemancapital 7 days ago.
-
Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 8 days ago.
-
Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 8 days ago.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 8 days ago.
-
[Fighting] Chael Sonnen to fight again by 2020-06-27 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-26; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 10 days ago.
-
The Washington Post, unlike other newspapers, will expand parts of its newsroom ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by contra 16 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by contra 11 days ago.
-
Arsenal does not lose it's game on Saturday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell 13 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by MikeMitchell 12 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Joe Biden ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.
-
[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.