Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9156 | 12615 | 12997 | 13376 | 24714 | 6570 | 79428 |
Judged Predictions
-
[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by peter_hurford about 4 hours ago.
-
[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known 25 days ago; judged right by peter_hurford about 4 hours ago.
-
“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro about 21 hours ago.
-
There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro about 21 hours ago.
-
Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro about 21 hours ago.
-
I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
-
There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-13; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by regex 4 days ago.
-
Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known about 9 hours ago; judged right by jbeshir 5 days ago.
-
In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 5 days ago.
-
[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 5 days ago.
-
WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 6 days ago.
-
'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' —John Ellis ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known 25 days ago; judged right by JoshuaZ 6 days ago.
-
“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 6 days ago.
-
Busy beaver number for 6 found by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 6 days ago.
-
Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 7 days ago.
-
Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 7 days ago.
-
[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shinyhare on 2016-07-25; known 9 days ago; judged right by shinyhare 7 days ago.
-
Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 8 days ago.
-
The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
A whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago.
-
I pass the Automattic chat interview ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 24 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by Adam Zerner 10 days ago.
-
Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus 11 days ago.
-
Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known 11 days ago; judged right by Cato 11 days ago.
-
Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by peter_hurford 11 days ago.
-
Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford 11 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by peter_hurford 11 days ago.
-
[Política nacional] Alguma versão da Reforma da Previdência será aprovada até o final de 2019. ( 65% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known 25 days ago; judged right by chemotaxis101 12 days ago.
-
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser 12 days ago.
-
AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram 13 days ago.
-
AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by lettergram 13 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the DPP ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德) ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平) ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-16; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 16 days ago; judged right by Cato 14 days ago.
-
[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.