Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by aarongertler 4 days ago.

Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 11 days ago; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern 4 days ago.

[Commodities] The next edition of BP's “Statistical Review of World Energy” to report a HIGHER global R/P ratio for oil than the present 50.2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.2 MMbpd ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 7 days ago.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st ( 50% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 7 days ago.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 7 days ago.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 7 days ago.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 9 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 11 days ago.

Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Peteris 12 days ago.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

Personal, Productivity – I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 13 days ago.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )

Created by enolan 30 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 15 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan 30 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 15 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )

Created by enolan 30 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 15 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )

Created by enolan 30 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 15 days ago.

A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr 16 days ago.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 16 days ago.

[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 16 days ago.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago.