PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10627	14635	15157	15911	29094	7619	93043

Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by jbeshir 1 day ago.

India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by sam_jaques 2 days ago.

The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ 2 days ago.

Nguyễn Thị Hoa 68 Chordoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 6 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 2 days ago.

Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 12 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 3 days ago.

Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 12 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 3 days ago.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known 6 days ago; judged right by sam_jaques 5 days ago.

By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by D0TheMath 5 days ago.

On July 27th, I took 0.5g of tumeric, 0.5g of Cinnamon, and Sleepytime tea around 6:30pm. I thought that I would wake up feeling well rested. ( 65% confidence )

Created by parallax 7 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by parallax 7 days ago.

Personal – I prepare and send text by deadline. ( 72% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 8 days ago.

[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by platypus42 9 days ago.

Etherium price ≥ $500 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by myah on 2020-07-06; known on 2021-07-06; judged right by stepan 11 days ago.

Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 11 days ago.

Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 11 days ago.

Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 11 days ago.

British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known 20 days ago; judged right by D0TheMath 13 days ago.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by omni 13 days ago.

In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known 15 days ago; judged right by qznc 15 days ago.

Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022 ( 100% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2020-05-27; known on 2022-05-27; judged wrong by gurgus 18 days ago.

The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-10-02.

Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 26 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 18 days ago.

Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 26 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 20 days ago.

Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon 27 days ago; known 21 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 20 days ago.

50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-07-06; judged wrong by htaussig 23 days ago.

COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir 26 days ago.

US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir 26 days ago.

The U.S. will surpass 36 million confirmed COVID-19 cases by July 1, 2021 at 00:00 GMT, defined as total cases reported at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Luke on 2020-12-26; known on 2021-07-02; judged wrong by stepan 26 days ago.

At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by stepan 26 days ago.

I finish my first draft of an EA Forum post, and share. ( 60% confidence )

Created by giljuand on 2021-07-01; known 28 days ago; judged wrong by giljuand 27 days ago.

NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-23; judged right by Deepak 29 days ago.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01.

There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by Mendez on 2021-07-01.

Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-07-01.

Luca movie is released by Pixar in June ( 70% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-01.

Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.

COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.

COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.

COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.

An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )

Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by katriel on 2021-07-01.

Personal – I get an email back from T by deadline. ( 52% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-27; known on 2021-07-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-30.

Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25; judged wrong by firsthummus on 2021-06-30.

[In the anime Odd Taxi]: Lhxv Zvgfhln'f xvyyre vf ure ercynprzrag, Fnxhen Jnqntnxv ( 75% confidence )

Created by Levenbrech on 2021-06-24; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by Levenbrech on 2021-06-28.

Personal – I have a deployed service for HWToday that I am using for something by deadline. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-28.

RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by evand on 2021-06-27.

COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.

COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

Statistics

Judged Predictions