Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9288 | 12789 | 13291 | 13659 | 25203 | 6757 | 80987 |
Judged Predictions
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk 11 days ago; known in about 22 hours; judged right by Stucwerk 7 minutes ago.
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On March 26th 2020 the states of California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, and Maryland will be quarantined, with smaller areas within on fenced lock down. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AgentAri 12 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by kuudes 2 days ago.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 2 days ago.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known in about 10 hours; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 4 days ago.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known 6 days ago; judged right by Cato 4 days ago.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf 9 days ago.
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Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 23 days ago; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital 10 days ago.
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Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 23 days ago; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital 10 days ago.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake 10 days ago.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake 10 days ago.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known in about 22 hours; judged right by suitecake 10 days ago.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known 10 days ago; judged right by playablecharacter 10 days ago.
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More than 100 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk 15 days ago; known in about 22 hours; judged right by Baeboo 10 days ago.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 11 days ago.
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Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 12 days ago.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 12 days ago; judged right by Cato 12 days ago.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known in about 22 hours; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known 13 days ago; judged right by Cato 14 days ago.
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“Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu 14 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 16 days ago.
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[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 16 days ago.
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Trump has the coronavirus ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner 17 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 17 days ago.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known 11 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 17 days ago.
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Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea 18 days ago.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Medea 18 days ago.
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[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 18 days ago.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato 20 days ago.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato 20 days ago.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato 20 days ago.