PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11733	16396	16867	17532	31239	8007	101774

Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf 4 days ago.

Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by 0uGiL 24 days ago.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 30 days ago.

General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.

Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.

Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.

The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.

We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-29.

Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-08-19; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-20.

I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-08-15.

A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12.

Will >15 PredictionBook users import their predictions to Fatebook using https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book by August 1st? ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-12; known on 2023-08-01; judged right by jellyberg on 2023-08-10.

Hematom extradural dupa cazatura si laceratie supraorbitala. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07; known on 2023-08-07; judged wrong by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07.

There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-06-30 ( 4% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 43% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.

John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-03.

Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known on 2023-05-02; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-07-11.

Will I have passed my semester 1 marketing exam? ( 35% confidence )

Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-10; judged right by MissReaper on 2023-07-10.

My telehealth appointment today will result in a metformin prescription for reducing long covid risk. ( 60% confidence )

Created by dmz on 2023-07-07; known on 2023-07-08; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-07-07.

65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )

Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-08-01; judged wrong by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-07.

xx ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-04; known on 2023-07-05; judged right by tempjb on 2023-07-04.

Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-05-12; known on 2023-06-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-03.

Will actors strike by July 1, 2023? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-07-02.

Will OpenAI have >=99.9% uptime for June 2023? ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.

Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-07-01.

Will I write my first LW post by June's end? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by duck_master on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.

On days with caffeine, the variance of values for creativity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 65% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.

On days with caffeine, the variance of values for productivity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.

On days with caffeine, my average creativity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 55% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.

On days with caffeine, my average productivity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 52% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.

I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.

I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.

A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.

A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.

A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.

A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.

A-9 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )