PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10491	14423	14919	15676	28689	7539	91737

Judged Predictions

I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )

Created by EliTyre 2 days ago; known about 13 hours ago; judged right by EliTyre about 10 hours ago.
[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] NKU ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S2 ( 20% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S1 ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] CM ( 40% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W5 ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W4 ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] OFR ( 99% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] IC ( 90% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged right by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] SP ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis 1 day ago.
COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 27 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 4 days ago.
COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 27 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 4 days ago.
COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 27 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 4 days ago.
Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 6 days ago.
COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 6 days ago.
[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 7 days ago.
Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 7 days ago.
Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 8 days ago.
Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )

Created by lithp 21 days ago; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp 9 days ago.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by lithp 21 days ago; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp 9 days ago.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )

Created by lithp 21 days ago; known in 20 days; judged right by lithp 9 days ago.
Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes 9 days ago.
I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by kuudes 9 days ago.
I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by vcavallo 24 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by vcavallo 10 days ago.
The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by sty.silver 11 days ago.
Hungary will open its borders back ( 10% confidence )

Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by MartaK 11 days ago.
150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon 11 days ago.
100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known in 19 days; judged right by krazemon 11 days ago.
9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon 11 days ago.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon 11 days ago.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between June 1st and July 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon 11 days ago.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon 11 days ago.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between January 9th and March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 11 days ago; judged right by krazemon 11 days ago.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by krazemon 11 days ago.
Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 17 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged right by lui 13 days ago.
Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 11 days ago.
Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 17 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 11 days ago.
Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 17 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 11 days ago.
Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 13 days ago.
Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 13 days ago.
The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 14 days ago.
Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 17 days ago.
Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 18 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 17 days ago.