Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10402 | 14262 | 14738 | 15454 | 28087 | 7483 | 90426 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics, US – Parler's website is unavailable throughout 2021-01-17 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known about 8 hours ago; judged right by jbeshir about 4 hours ago.
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in bed (by promise definition) by 10.15pm on 17th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 10pm ( 90% confidence )
Created by iterate-again 2 days ago; known about 7 hours ago; judged wrong by iterate-again about 5 hours ago.
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in bed (by promise definition) by 11.15pm on 16th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 11pm ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iterate-again 2 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by iterate-again about 5 hours ago.
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This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known 3 days ago; judged right by akarlin about 13 hours ago.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by davatk 1 day ago.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by blackRust 2 days ago.
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Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust 2 days ago.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Someone else ( 1% confidence )
Created by amadeu 6 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 2 days ago.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Norbert Röttgen ( 17% confidence )
Created by amadeu 6 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 2 days ago.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Friedrich Merz ( 39% confidence )
Created by amadeu 6 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 2 days ago.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Armin Laschet ( 43% confidence )
Created by amadeu 6 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by amadeu 2 days ago.
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I will be in bed by 10.45pm tonight 15 Jan (according to definition I was using for promises, w/o the 'friends approve' exceptions), ( 30% confidence )
Created by iterate-again 3 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by iterate-again 2 days ago.
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I have currently have COVID-19 and will have a fever or positive test within 10 days ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue 7 days ago; known in 4 days; judged wrong by technillogue 2 days ago.
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Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of “not alone” ( 80% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-01; known 8 days ago; judged right by bendini 8 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known about 8 hours ago; judged right by jbeshir 8 days ago.
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Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 9 days ago.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 9 days ago.
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Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga 9 days ago.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Medea 10 days ago.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by LukeS 10 days ago.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Deepak 11 days ago.
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George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by erstwhile on 2020-03-21; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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Mike Pence will certify Joe Biden’s electoral college victory on 6 January ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy 12 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 12 days ago.
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I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by platypus42 12 days ago.
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Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known 17 days ago; judged right by sjy 12 days ago.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by peter_hurford 13 days ago.
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Eliot will be forced to stop using “purple people” as an inoffensive placemarker for <some group of people> because it will start to seem offensive and people will <know> who is being referred to. See euphemistic treadmill. Within 5 years ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2020-11-11; judged right by waveman 13 days ago.
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India will have higher total (cumulative) confirmed COVID-19 cases than the US at some point before December 31 2021. ( 70% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by galaga 13 days ago.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known 17 days ago; judged right by lukefreeman 13 days ago.
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Politics, US – Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known 17 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known 17 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known 17 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Politics, Hong Kong – Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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COVID, UK – It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known 23 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-19; judged wrong by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 15 days ago.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 15 days ago.
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Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 15 days ago.
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I will suicide before 2021 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 15 days ago.
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Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by peter_hurford 15 days ago.
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There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-29; known 17 days ago; judged right by sjy 15 days ago.
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No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-28; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by sjy 15 days ago.