Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2024-01-05.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kwangotango on 2024-01-05.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2024-01-02.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by duck_master on 2024-01-02.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by elecnix on 2024-01-01.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2024-01-01.
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NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2024-01-01.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-12-31.
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I will get into EAGxMelbourne 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-22; known on 2023-08-02; judged right by MissReaper on 2023-12-31.
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Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)? ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-22; known on 2023-12-26; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-28.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-12-07.
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Hollow Knight: Silksong releases in 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by galaga on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by galaga on 2023-11-16.
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I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-11-07.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-11-07.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-11-07.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 on 2023-10-24.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-10-21.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-09-28; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-29.
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Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by 0uGiL on 2023-09-09.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-09-03.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-10; known in 29 days; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-29.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-08-19; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-20.
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I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-08-15.
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A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12.
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Will >15 PredictionBook users import their predictions to Fatebook using https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book by August 1st? ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-12; known on 2023-08-01; judged right by jellyberg on 2023-08-10.
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Hematom extradural dupa cazatura si laceratie supraorbitala. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07; known on 2023-08-07; judged wrong by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07.
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There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-05.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-06-30 ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 43% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-03.
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Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known on 2023-05-02; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-07-11.
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Will I have passed my semester 1 marketing exam? ( 35% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-10; judged right by MissReaper on 2023-07-10.
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My telehealth appointment today will result in a metformin prescription for reducing long covid risk. ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-07-07; known on 2023-07-08; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-07-07.
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65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-08-01; judged wrong by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-07.
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xx ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-04; known on 2023-07-05; judged right by tempjb on 2023-07-04.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-05-12; known on 2023-06-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-03.
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Will actors strike by July 1, 2023? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-07-02.
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Will OpenAI have >=99.9% uptime for June 2023? ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-07-01.
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Will I write my first LW post by June's end? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for creativity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for productivity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, my average creativity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.