Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 58% | 66% | 76% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 7794 | 10732 | 10705 | 10900 | 21979 | 5705 | 67815 |
Judged Predictions
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A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 16 days ago; known in 12 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum about 2 hours ago.
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A redacted form of the Mueller report is released by Friday ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known in 1 day; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum about 2 hours ago.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato about 4 hours ago.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known about 21 hours ago; judged right by Cato 2 days ago.
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SpaceX will successfully recover a fairing using its net catching system by April 15 2019 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-25; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 3 days ago.
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[intentional duplicate] The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro 4 days ago.
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[Fighting] Max Holloway to beat Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 4 days ago.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by notsonewuser 13 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser 5 days ago.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon 25 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon 7 days ago.
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Earthquake April 11th… A dream from 20 years ago was recently reconfirmed to my Uncle that there will be a catastrophic earthquake in Portland Oregon area. Personally I don't buy it. He is so certain he left town. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by liveitpros 8 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago.
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At least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 16 days ago; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago.
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Ecuador kicks Julian Assange out from their London embassy ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-01; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by two2thehead 8 days ago.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson 8 days ago.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson 8 days ago.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson 8 days ago.
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the earth will spin for the next 24 hours ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rbutorac 10 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by pranomostro 9 days ago.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known 9 days ago; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 28 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 28 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 28 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2019 US crude oil production ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known 9 days ago; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known 9 days ago; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-02-25.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known 9 days ago; judged right by Cato 10 days ago.
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I will visit Japan before 2020 ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by bobpage 12 days ago.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-30). ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by notsonewuser 21 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser 13 days ago.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by krazemon 13 days ago.
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I have sex at least once in the next 3 months ( 50% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2019-01-08; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 13 days ago.
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India's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019 ( 45% confidence )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Nve 13 days ago.
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India's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Nve 13 days ago.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 15 days ago.
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The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato 16 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged right by Cato 16 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged right by Cato 16 days ago.
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[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known 17 days ago; judged right by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 18 days ago.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 18 days ago.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 18 days ago.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 18 days ago.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 18 days ago.