Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10770 | 14894 | 15428 | 16140 | 29421 | 7677 | 94330 |
Judged Predictions
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I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2021-12-01 ( 10% confidence )
Created by blin 25 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by blin about 20 hours ago.
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USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known 3 days ago; judged right by Liface 3 days ago.
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Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known in 18 days; judged right by Liface 3 days ago.
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Created by SamBuckman 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by SamBuckman 9 days ago.
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AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens 10 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have the highest score stdev ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have a score stdev > 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] A game I have voted on will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “Grandma Bethlinda's Remarkable Egg” will win ( 5% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “Fine Felines” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “The Golden Heist” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Leo 12 days ago.
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[IFComp 2021] “And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One” will win ( 25% confidence )
Created by Leo 18 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by Leo 12 days ago.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 4 (attempted first degree intentional homicide of Gaige P. Grosskreutz) ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 24 days ago; known in 12 days; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 13 days ago.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 6 (gun possession by minor) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 22 days ago; known in 12 days; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 13 days ago.
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Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 15 days ago.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ 15 days ago.
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[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sungk2048 23 days ago.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known 30 days ago; judged wrong by htaussig 24 days ago.
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All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10; judged right by htaussig 24 days ago.
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I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by htaussig 24 days ago.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC 29 days ago.
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I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.
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By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? ( 79% confidence )
Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2021-11-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by tswift on 2011-11-04.
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Dune movie is released in October ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-11-01.
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SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-27; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by finback on 2021-10-29.
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TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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NGUYỄN KIM BẢO / VDUH^2100079612 Hình ảnh tổn thương xẹp thân đốt sống L2 lan vào cuống sống và cung sau tạo khối xâm lấn xung quanh như mô tả, chưa loại trừ u mô bào X, đề nghị phối hợp sinh thiết. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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VŨ HÀ MY / VDUH^2100080889 Hình ảnh khối lớn tiểu khung giàu mạch theo dõi u buồng trứng. Ít dịch tự do ổ bụng. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 Hình ảnh u gan phải tính chất không điển hình (Đề nghị phối hợp thêm xét nghiệm). Khối vùng hạ vị ranh giới rõ – TD u mạc treo. U xơ thành sau tử cung. TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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NGÔ QUANG VINH / VDUH^2100080255 u màng não Meckel xoang hang trái ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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ngô quang vinh 51 UMN? ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27; known on 2021-10-04; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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8:12 Head of the Charles 1v placement ( 80% confidence )
Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-24; judged right by larrison23 on 2021-10-24.
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econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.
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SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-28; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Fewer than 75 people participate in Protect the People's Haiti H-2A program in 2016 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17; known in 29 days; judged right by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17.
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Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.