Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 66% | 76% | 87% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 6002 | 8175 | 7872 | 7985 | 12893 | 4534 | 47461 |
Judged Predictions
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Michael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 19 days ago; known in about 5 hours; judged wrong by themusicgod1 about 5 hours ago.
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Dan McLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2014-05-01; known 27 days ago; judged right by gwern about 8 hours ago.
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Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern about 8 hours ago.
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I will make dinner for my family on Friday, May 26th. ( 75% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil 8 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by quatrefoil about 14 hours ago.
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Prof will present the paper next week. ( 25% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil 8 days ago; known about 19 hours ago; judged right by quatrefoil about 14 hours ago.
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Velvet Scarlatina will appear in Season 2 of RWBY Chibi, voiced by Caiti Ward. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pvoberstein on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by pvoberstein about 14 hours ago.
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Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known in 4 days; judged right by themusicgod1 1 day ago.
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Jared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known on 2027-05-20; judged right by two2thehead 2 days ago.
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Politics, Iraq – Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir 16 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 5 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Copyless Paste is announced as going to be integrated into Gboard. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – At least one new Pixel phone is announced. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by themusicgod1 2 days ago.
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I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by azax1 3 days ago.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes 3 days ago.
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willow tree instrumental song ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower 3 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by elephantower 3 days ago.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by bobpage 3 days ago.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bobpage 3 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by bobpage 3 days ago.
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My relatives (whom I haven't met before) will misgender me over dinner tonight. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Somni 3 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 3 days ago.
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BTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sebnow 3 days ago; known in 5 days; judged right by gwern 3 days ago.
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Alice will offer me an orange. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni 5 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 3 days ago.
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I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis ( 25% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by Isaac 3 days ago.
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I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known 12 days ago; judged right by Isaac 3 days ago.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by bobpage 18 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by bobpage 4 days ago.
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We will have the new data layer and redux events in the data layer by the end of this sprint. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by Jais Cheema 4 days ago.
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Kenji Matsumoto wins the 2017 Niagara Falls Scrabble Tournament (prediction recorded after tournament started but before looking at results). ( 18% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil 8 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by quatrefoil 4 days ago.
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Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities 4 days ago.
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Mississippi State Rep Karl Oliver apologizes in some way for his lynching comment ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead 6 days ago; known on 2017-11-22; judged right by two2thehead 5 days ago.
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I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mike 28 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Mike 7 days ago.
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bullock won lake county ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower 7 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged right by elephantower 7 days ago.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead 21 days ago; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead 8 days ago.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter 8 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 8 days ago.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by playablecharacter 8 days ago.
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Politics, US – Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir 18 days ago; known in 21 days; judged right by jbeshir 9 days ago.
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zip file has episode 385 in it ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 10 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by themusicgod1 9 days ago.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy 11 days ago; known in 4 days; judged right by Nve 9 days ago.
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Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead 9 days ago.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes 10 days ago.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes 10 days ago.
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Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 ( 94% confidence )
Created by kuudes 21 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by kuudes 10 days ago.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 10 days ago.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by themusicgod1 11 days ago.
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 11 days ago.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known in 25 days; judged right by two2thehead 11 days ago.
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I will have > 10,000 lines of Elixir before 2018 ( 87% confidence )
Created by bobpage 27 days ago; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bobpage 11 days ago.