Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 58% | 66% | 76% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 7432 | 10172 | 10077 | 10254 | 21014 | 5576 | 64525 |
Judged Predictions
-
Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known about 16 hours ago; judged right by jbeshir about 20 hours ago.
-
Politics, US – In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known 14 days ago; judged right by Gurkenglas 1 day ago.
-
Politics, US – In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known 14 days ago; judged right by Gurkenglas 1 day ago.
-
I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson 2 days ago.
-
I do not become a card carrying democrat ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson 2 days ago.
-
Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 5 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Adam Zerner 5 days ago.
-
Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by notsonewuser on 2018-04-02; known 5 days ago; judged right by notsonewuser 5 days ago.
-
My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known 24 days ago; judged right by taryneast 5 days ago.
-
My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-07-21; judged right by taryneast 5 days ago.
-
My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months ( 55% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-05-21; judged right by taryneast 5 days ago.
-
My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by taryneast 5 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 7 days ago.
-
Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 7 days ago.
-
Politics, Brazil – Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known 14 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 30 days ago; known in 22 days; judged right by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known in 17 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo ( 5% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known in 14 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known in 14 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known in 23 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[Brazil's next president will be] Lula ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 16 days ago; known in 23 days; judged right by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.
-
Chiron will win TCEC season 13 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo 9 days ago.
-
Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo 9 days ago.
-
They fix my bike for free ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 13 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 11 days ago.
-
Alex and Jenny will be home ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 11 days ago.
-
We get kicked out of the hotel ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 11 days ago.
-
We get asked to keep it down at the hotel ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 11 days ago.
-
The hotel room has a big bathtub ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 13 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged right by Adam Zerner 12 days ago.
-
The hotel room has a fridge ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 13 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 12 days ago.
-
The hotel room has a king sized bed ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 13 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 12 days ago.
-
They won't have milk at the business center ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 14 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 14 days ago.
-
LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus 14 days ago.
-
LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus 14 days ago.
-
Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo 23 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by moyamo 16 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 27 days ago.
-
[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 27 days ago.
-
UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
-
UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
-
The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
-
The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
-
Sangram will able to beat me at Blobby Volleyball in the next 50 days ( 80% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-23; known on 2018-09-11; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
-
Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 ( 51% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-09-06.
-
S's endo gives her a prescription for b or c ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-09-05; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-09-05.
-
Milson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2018-09-04.