PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	66%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7682	10593	10513	10747	21696	5673	66904

At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix about 2 hours ago.

Another Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix about 2 hours ago.

I will attend Albion 3. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged right by Athrithalix about 2 hours ago.

I will attend Syndicate 2018. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged wrong by Athrithalix about 2 hours ago.

ARCA Space will fail to reach its goal of a flight in 2018. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix about 2 hours ago.

Politics, UK – Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by jbeshir 4 days ago.

L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 4 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Market” to perform best ( 50% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Laplace” to perform best ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Cato 5 days ago.

[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known in 7 days; judged right by Cato 5 days ago.

Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.

Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known 22 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.

Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known 21 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 5 days ago.

Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser 14 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser 7 days ago.

[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 10 days ago.

I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi 10 days ago.

AR gives us the okay for publishing our project on CC-PA ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 29 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by peter_hurford 12 days ago.

[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books ( 15% confidence )