Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 67% | 76% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 8249 | 11273 | 11521 | 11508 | 22727 | 6042 | 71320 |
Judged Predictions
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Another Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by burning.harvest about 4 hours ago.
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there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by Somni about 21 hours ago.
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Treasury bonds yield ends lower for the day after Powell delivers Jackson Hole speech ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital 2 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by batemancapital 1 day ago.
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Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga 2 days ago.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for July 2019 to exceed 110 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known in about 7 hours; judged right by Cato 2 days ago.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known 3 days ago; judged right by Cato 3 days ago.
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I will still think Ouroboros is a bad design in six months ( 70% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-02-01; known 24 days ago; judged right by enolan 3 days ago.
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sha256 b7ef0c292e294fa4a8a61db591b60d35b5afa21260c3b2e7a9c0c4da45b675f3 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni 8 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 8 days ago.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by Ben Doherty 9 days ago.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 6 days; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by pranomostro 13 days ago.
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Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by objclone 13 days ago.
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Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known 24 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 14 days ago.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 15 days ago; judged right by Cato 17 days ago.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged right by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 17 days ago; judged right by Cato 17 days ago.
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[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 18 days ago.
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Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known 24 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 20 days ago.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 20 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known 11 days ago; judged right by Cato 20 days ago.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk 21 days ago.
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TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf 22 days ago.
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Destin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA ( 10% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by jesselevine 24 days ago.
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Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine 24 days ago.
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[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 24 days ago.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 23 days ago; judged right by Cato 24 days ago.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known 24 days ago; judged right by Cato 24 days ago.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known 24 days ago; judged right by Cato 24 days ago.
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[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 24 days ago.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 24 days ago.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 24 days ago; judged right by Cato 24 days ago.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 24 days ago.
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan 28 days ago.
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The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known 28 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 28 days ago.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known 30 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 30 days ago.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known 30 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 30 days ago.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the top contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known 30 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 30 days ago.