Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11127 | 15461 | 15943 | 16707 | 30199 | 7859 | 97296 |
Judged Predictions
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 15 days ago; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo 5 days ago.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 17 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 11 days ago.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known 20 days ago; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 15 days ago.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 20 days ago.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known 20 days ago; judged right by chemotaxis101 20 days ago.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by peter_hurford 21 days ago.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 24 days ago.
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twitter will not have the ability to view “latest tweets” (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-09; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 24 days ago.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 24 days ago.
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Macron will not be re-elected as French President. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known in 3 days; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 25 days ago.
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paulinho será eleito para a seleção do paulistão ( 68% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 25 days ago.
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internacional não será campeão gaúcho ( 87% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known 12 days ago; judged right by chemotaxis101 25 days ago.
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fluminense será campeão carioca ( 77% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known 12 days ago; judged right by chemotaxis101 25 days ago.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-07; known 26 days ago; judged right by oakbound 26 days ago.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by oakbound 26 days ago.
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An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-17; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by oakbound 26 days ago.
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2205042200 VŨ DUY VỊNH Hình ảnh u thận phải, có phần thải thuốc và có vỏ- nghĩ đến RCC. Nang nhỏ thận phải. Nang nhỏ gan. Theo dõi sỏi thận trái ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205043310 Hamartoma hạ đồi ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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220504464 pilocystic astrocytoma tiểu não phải ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205041948 ung thư hay viêm tiền liệt tuyến ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205020046 Hình ảnh khối u sùi lớn trực tràng giữa, có nhiều hạch lân cận, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, theo dõi xâm lấn mạch máu (T3cN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (+)). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2201007768 Hình ảnh u trực tràng thấp, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, mạch máu, có nhiều hạch trong và ngoài cân trực tràng (T3bN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (-)) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205044054 Rò hậu môn áp xe gian cơ thắt, lỗ trong 6h ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by PowerPho 29 days ago.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 24 days ago.
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I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16; judged right by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known 2 days ago; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-05-27.
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France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jeefy01 on 2019-06-12; known 28 days ago; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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World – Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known 27 days ago; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will remain in power as of May 15, 2022. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Luke on 2022-01-11; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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2205034201 sán lá gan?? Bạch cầu ưa acid 50% ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205036197 NGUYỄN THỊ THÚY Kí sinh trùng áp xe gan? ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 5: True ( 60% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known 26 days ago; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 4: True ( 70% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known 26 days ago; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 3: True ( 55% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known 26 days ago; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 2: True ( 40% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 1: True ( 50% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known 26 days ago; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-08-13; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06.
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Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09.
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Mai Anh Tú 44 56931 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-15; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Cầm Văn Truyền 17 PA hố sau: 70% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
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Vũ Thị Tăng 66 Meningioma at right cerebellapontine angle ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.
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Trịnh văn ngọc 25 2100074420 Multifocal GBM Anh Khuyên: glioma/ TS ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-30; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-14.