PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	68%	77%	88%	93%
Sample Size	9760	13430	14011	14666	26569	7137	85573

I will write one (new) post on my effort post blog ( 30% confidence )

Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by vincentluczkow about 3 hours ago.

Basement construction will be finished by Sept 18 EOD ( 55% confidence )

Created by grin 17 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by grin 1 day ago.

[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 3 days ago.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by arrowinthedark 3 days ago.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by arrowinthedark 3 days ago.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known 4 days ago; judged right by arrowinthedark 3 days ago.

Tyson Alualu starts at NT week one ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known 5 days ago; judged right by Adam Zerner 5 days ago.

Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 5 days ago.

Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 5 days ago.

[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 5 days ago.

In 31 days from now, I'll have earned at least 100 USD from “beermoney” services ( 45% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-14; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by platypus42 7 days ago.

NFL season starts on time ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known about 12 hours ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 7 days ago.

TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azatris on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga 7 days ago.

Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 7 days ago.

Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.

The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 8 days ago.

I pass the phone screen for Google ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known in 2 days; judged right by Adam Zerner 9 days ago.

I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-14; known in 3 days; judged right by Bruno Parga 9 days ago.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga 9 days ago.

OSU is online only by 8 September ( 15% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 16 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by peter_hurford 10 days ago.

there are 8 harry porter main timeline movies. (i guess 7th one was separated into 2 movies.) ( 70% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by JBCBTest 11 days ago.

nike was founded in 1970s ( 40% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by JBCBTest 11 days ago.

richard branson own virgin airways? ( 20% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by JBCBTest 11 days ago.

what is femer? maybe in the head part? ( 1% confidence )