Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 58% | 66% | 76% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 7504 | 10290 | 10203 | 10381 | 21148 | 5592 | 65118 |
Judged Predictions
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There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known in 21 days; judged right by gallerdude about 19 hours ago.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour of work on my predictor before the end of 2018-12-02 UTC. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-12; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-08; known 10 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 2 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 3 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 3 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 3 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 3 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 3 days ago; judged right by amadeu 3 days ago.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged unknown by Bruno Parga 25 days ago.
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Bharat's fiscal deficit will come to down to 3% of GDP in 3 years: 3.9% GDP in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 3% 2017-18. ( 95% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 4 days ago.
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Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 4 days ago.
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World Bank predicts Bharat will have sub 8% growth for 3 years. 7.5% 2015-16,7.8% 2016-17, and 7.9% 2017-18. ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known 4 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 4 days ago.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely 29 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by aarongertler 5 days ago.
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Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 10 days ago; judged right by Jennifer 8 days ago.
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Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 10 days ago; judged right by Jennifer 8 days ago.
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ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni 17 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by Somni 10 days ago.
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My partner will get ready in the next hour to collaborate with my friend ( 70% confidence )
Created by absurdseagull 10 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by absurdseagull 10 days ago.
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Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-10; known 12 days ago; judged right by amadeu 13 days ago.
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Personal, Productivity – I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 13 days ago.
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There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-03; known in 2 days; judged right by Bruno Parga 13 days ago.
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Bright Funds will no longer exist as a coherent entity when I look it up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler 13 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by aarongertler 13 days ago.
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ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 21 days; judged right by marianne 15 days ago.
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ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 21 days; judged right by marianne 15 days ago.
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ACE will announce GFI as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 21 days; judged right by marianne 15 days ago.
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ACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 21 days; judged wrong by marianne 15 days ago.
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ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 25% confidence )
Created by Somni 24 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 17 days ago.
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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 17 days ago.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 18 days ago.
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Novak Djokovic will finish year-end ATP number 1 in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known 21 days ago; judged right by gurgus 21 days ago.
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Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known 21 days ago; judged right by gurgus 21 days ago.
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Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga 23 days ago.
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I have exercised 250 days this year. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known in 21 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 24 days ago.
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Zach and Katie's relationship ends within four years. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-05-18; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by aarongertler 24 days ago.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 3 days ago.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Denver/Boulder. ( 10% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 26 days ago.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Boston. ( 25% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 26 days ago.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] the DC area. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged right by Bruno Parga 26 days ago.
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Politics, US – Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 26 days ago.
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Я завершу первой главу ВКР до 1 ноября ( 70% confidence )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Stommelen 29 days ago.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 3 days ago.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 3 days ago.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by notsonewuser on 2018-11-01; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser on 2018-11-11.
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Nationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known in 21 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known in 21 days; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats obtain a majority in the house ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 20 days; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.