PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	58%	67%	76%	88%	92%
Sample Size	8476	11625	11967	12037	23083	6140	73328

Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known 3 days ago; judged right by Bruno Parga 3 days ago.

[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato 3 days ago.

[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato 3 days ago.

Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 4 days ago.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by notsonewuser on 2018-10-10; known 4 days ago; judged right by notsonewuser 4 days ago.

It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 4 days ago.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known about 14 hours ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known about 14 hours ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known about 14 hours ago; judged right by Cato 5 days ago.

[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known about 14 hours ago; judged wrong by Cato 5 days ago.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known in about 10 hours; judged right by Cato 5 days ago.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known in 7 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 5 days ago.

The Red Sox will win the world series. ( 75% confidence )

Created by williamsmithpennstate on 2019-07-29; known in 1 day; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 5 days ago.

[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 5 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known 5 days ago; judged right by Cato 7 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known 8 days ago; judged right by Cato 12 days ago.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 12 days ago.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.

[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 58% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known 14 days ago; judged right by Cato 13 days ago.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 13 days ago.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known 14 days ago; judged right by marcus_a_davis 13 days ago.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )