Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-12-15; judged right by Bruno Parga about 4 hours ago.

I will take my car into town on Friday, not the bike or bus. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix 18 days ago; known 16 days ago; judged right by Athrithalix 16 days ago.

As of January 1, 2020, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik 16 days ago.

As of January 1, 2019, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik 16 days ago.

On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 5 billion views. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik 16 days ago.

Villanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship ( 35% confidence )

Created by dakyne 27 days ago; known 19 days ago; judged right by ccokeefe 17 days ago.

I will not attend S' birthday celebrations. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix 26 days ago; known 20 days ago; judged right by Athrithalix 19 days ago.

Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Calendar will survive 5 more years ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known in 11 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known in 10 days; judged right by gwern 19 days ago.

Desi will not send any messages at all to me ( 80% confidence )

Created by zvory 26 days ago; known 19 days ago; judged right by zvory 19 days ago.

The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-03-04; known 21 days ago; judged right by dchristie 20 days ago.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik 21 days ago.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik 21 days ago.

I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vasudha Pande on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by Vasudha Pande 24 days ago.

The listicle I just saw on Facebook “7 Complete Wastes of Money that Most People Don't Even Consider” will all be things that either (1) I've considered, (2) don't apply to me, or (3) save trivial amounts of money. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens 24 days ago; known 23 days ago; judged right by Michael Dickens 24 days ago.

As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known 26 days ago; judged right by aarongertler 25 days ago.

If @m doesn't cancel the game 2018-03-22, I will be feeling well enough to come #illness #personal ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman 30 days ago; known 29 days ago; judged right by crabman 26 days ago.