Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11620 | 16196 | 16634 | 17333 | 31059 | 7976 | 100818 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get Henry or Austin to play SC2 by end of week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch 17 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by alexanderpasch about 5 hours ago.
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Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by jazzsolo 2 days ago.
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S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Ygg 3 days ago.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 12 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago.
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The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Kaivu 7 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Kaivu 7 days ago.
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Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin 10 days ago.
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Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin 10 days ago.
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AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by srconstantin 10 days ago.
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Specific attempt at cheese vector will work ( 10% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 11 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by TurnTrout 11 days ago.
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The weather will mess up unloading on Thurs or Fri, causing a delay and/or a very late evening (>6pm). ( 5% confidence )
Created by freeminator 17 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by freeminator 12 days ago.
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Modifying a maze env to have an extra-high up top right pathway, compared to the normal version, and then taking a top-right vector over this — will work comparably well to the cheese vector. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout 14 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 14 days ago.
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Cheese vector works on at least 50% of alternate size pretrained models, as qualitatively determined by me. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout 15 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 15 days ago.
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Eliza Bender says “like” more than 30 times in one comment today (3/8) in Social Theory ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ethanmg01 15 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged right by ethanmg01 15 days ago.
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Twitter outage resolved by 5pm PT today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago.
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Ethan will throw up tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by matan 19 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by ethanmg01 18 days ago.
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[When i get my score] I get ≥518 MCAT ( 10% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by squackledee 19 days ago.
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[When i get my score] I get 515-518 MCAT ( 60% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by squackledee 19 days ago.
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[When i get my score] I get ≤515 MCAT ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 20 days ago; judged right by squackledee 19 days ago.
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I will see Andrea in California. ( 65% confidence )
Created by arrivals 25 days ago; known 21 days ago; judged right by arrivals 20 days ago.
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I will win my next multiplayer Mario Kart game (against human players) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-15; known on 2024-02-15; judged right by kwangotango 20 days ago.
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In small mazes (<6×6), c55 doesn't pos activate on cheese very reliably (>1.5x false negative rate compared to larger mazes). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout 22 days ago; known 22 days ago; judged wrong by TurnTrout 22 days ago.
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My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known 22 days ago; judged right by kadavy 22 days ago.
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Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-29; known 22 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 22 days ago.
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Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-02-02; judged right by DanCoimbra 23 days ago.
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Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2023-01-31; known 23 days ago; judged right by DanCoimbra 23 days ago.
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greater than 70% of habits completed this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by pseudotilitarian 25 days ago.
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No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2021-06-13; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by pseudotilitarian 25 days ago.
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complete thesis draft up to gene-level results by next wk ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known 25 days ago; judged right by pseudotilitarian 25 days ago.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy 27 days ago.
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I will shoot 85 or under tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy 29 days ago; known 28 days ago; judged wrong by kadavy 28 days ago.
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When scale=1, the policy network will still have at least one translation-equivariant cheese-detecting conv channel in block2.res1.resadd_out. ( 90% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-21; known 23 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 29 days ago.
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At least one of the three UAPs shot down remains publicly unidentified ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-14; known on 2024-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-18.
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I fall while ice skating tomorrow ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-15.
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Richie and I get dinner on Tuesday ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by rlourie on 2023-02-15.
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I will resolve this prediction as “right” ( 100% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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DSJ says “yup yup yup” ( 40% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Will I at LEAST kiss J tonight? ( 10% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2023-02-13; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by pancakemouse on 2023-02-14.
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Carlsen wins the Airthings Master Grand Final ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-12; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-14.
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there is a spoof that makes me glad I watched the super bowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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richie makes a comment about Ella tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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trey hits vape within 5 (five) minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-12; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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I have sex tomorrow ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-11; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-11.
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Matan and Ryan get into a dispute about Israel-Palestine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan dominate conversation about Israel-Palestine ( 95% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.