Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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On days with caffeine, my average productivity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 52% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-9 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-8 was caffeine. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-7 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-6 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-5 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-14 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-13 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-12 was caffeine. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-11 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-10 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-19 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-18 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-17 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-16 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-15 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-25 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-24 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-23 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-22 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-21 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-20 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-26 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-27 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-28 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-39 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-43 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-42 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-41 was caffeine. ( 15% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-40 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-45 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-44 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-46 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-47 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-48 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-49 was caffeine. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-50 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for absorption during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for mindfulness during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average absorption during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average mindfulness during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill has a log score of more than -0.5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill is more accurate than random guesses. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the mindfulness values. ( 20% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.