Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Cheese vector works on at least 50% of alternate size pretrained models, as qualitatively determined by me. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-09.
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Eliza Bender says “like” more than 30 times in one comment today (3/8) in Social Theory ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08.
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Twitter outage resolved by 5pm PT today ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-07.
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Ethan will throw up tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by matan on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-03-06; judged wrong by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-06.
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[When i get my score] I get ≥518 MCAT ( 10% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get 515-518 MCAT ( 60% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get ≤515 MCAT ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged right by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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I will see Andrea in California. ( 65% confidence )
Created by arrivals on 2023-02-27; known on 2023-03-02; judged right by arrivals on 2023-03-04.
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I will win my next multiplayer Mario Kart game (against human players) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-15; known on 2024-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-03-03.
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In small mazes (<6×6), c55 doesn't pos activate on cheese very reliably (>1.5x false negative rate compared to larger mazes). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01.
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My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-03-01.
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Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-29; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-01.
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Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-02-02; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2023-02-28.
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Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2023-01-31; known on 2023-02-28; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2023-02-28.
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greater than 70% of habits completed this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged wrong by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2021-06-13; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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complete thesis draft up to gene-level results by next wk ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged right by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
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I will shoot 85 or under tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-02-22; known on 2023-02-23; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-02-23.
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When scale=1, the policy network will still have at least one translation-equivariant cheese-detecting conv channel in block2.res1.resadd_out. ( 90% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-21; known on 2023-02-28; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-02-22.
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At least one of the three UAPs shot down remains publicly unidentified ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-14; known on 2024-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-18.
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I fall while ice skating tomorrow ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-15.
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Richie and I get dinner on Tuesday ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by rlourie on 2023-02-15.
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I will resolve this prediction as “right” ( 100% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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DSJ says “yup yup yup” ( 40% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Will I at LEAST kiss J tonight? ( 10% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2023-02-13; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by pancakemouse on 2023-02-14.
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Carlsen wins the Airthings Master Grand Final ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-12; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-14.
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there is a spoof that makes me glad I watched the super bowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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richie makes a comment about Ella tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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trey hits vape within 5 (five) minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-12; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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I have sex tomorrow ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-11; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-11.
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Matan and Ryan get into a dispute about Israel-Palestine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan dominate conversation about Israel-Palestine ( 95% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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The Los Angeles Clippers beat the New York Knicks on February 5, 2023 ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05; known on 2023-02-05; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05.
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AMC will hit as low as $8 again and then bounce to a new ATH, higher than $80, during 2022. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-01-04; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-04.
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GDP growth will not resume to the pre-covid trajectory. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-04.
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Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
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Manchester United beat Reading in the 4th round of the 2022/23 FA Cup ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-01-29; judged right by panashe on 2023-01-30.