Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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λ<1 for the absorption values. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the mindfulness values. ( 82% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the absorption values. ( 88% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average happiness during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average contentment during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average relaxation during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average chastity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for happiness during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for contentment during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for relaxation during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for chastity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the happiness values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the contentment values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the contentment values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the relaxation values. ( 37% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the chastity values. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the happiness values. ( 85% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the contentment values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the relaxation values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the chastity values. ( 95% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the productivity values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the creativity values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the creativity values. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the producitvity values. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-29 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-30 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-31 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-32 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-32 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-33 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-34 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-35 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-36 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-37 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-38 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known on 2023-06-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-06-15.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known on 2023-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-06-15.
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Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known in 28 days; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-09.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-07.
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Subtracting “Anger” embedding from layer 0, position 1 of GPT-2-XL will decrease anger ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-06-07; known on 2023-06-07; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-06-07.
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Specific attempt at cheese vector will work ( 10% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-13; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06.
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IGPT converges faster than DT in offline RL paper ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06; known on 2023-06-07; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06.
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“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-22.
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btc at 100k+ in two years ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19; judged wrong by htaussig on 2023-05-17.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector makes non-1 digits come out as “3” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17; known on 2023-05-17; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector transfers to other 1s ( 35% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17; known on 2023-05-17; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17.