Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Optimized wedding vector works really well ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-05-16.
-
First Republic Bank to enter receivership / FDIC control before May 8, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-10.
-
David Udell can get both anger and wedding vectors to superimpose in GPT2XL within 20 minutes, showing qualitative effects from both ActivationAdditions ( 45% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-04; known on 2023-05-05; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-05-05.
-
Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
-
Средний вес 28.04-3.05 будет ниже чем 85кг ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2023-04-01; known on 2023-05-03; judged wrong by Mckiev on 2023-05-03.
-
I will sell between 400 and 800 copies of 100 Word Writing Habit by the end of April. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-05-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-05-01.
-
Vanguard will successfully unlock my account on Friday or before ( 40% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-29; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-05-01.
-
Vanguard support will call me back when they promised to. (9am Friday) ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-28; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-04-28.
-
I'll be able to export my data from PredictionBook in a sensible format. ( 60% confidence )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25; judged wrong by speeze on 2023-04-25.
-
Statistically significant propensity to go to nearby-cheese, controlling for shortest-path-distance and position in maze relative to top-right corner (goal misgeneralization networks, behavioral tests) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-01-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-22.
-
Uli got AVE to work on Vicuna-13b ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
-
Weighted prompt superposition works in Vicuna on first few tries. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-22; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
-
Uli got AVE to work on Vicuna-13b ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
-
https://pastebin.com/F9jwvTPB will only subtly modify completions relative to normal. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
-
PV yield in the 5-8 kWh range on 17th ( 80% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-04-16; known on 2023-04-18; judged right by freeminator on 2023-04-18.
-
26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-04-16; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-16.
-
[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] Subtracting this “wedding vector” often increases the incidence of wedding-discussion ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
-
[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The second half of the model is harder to intervene on and get wedding outputs ( 80% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
-
[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] the first prompt tends to elicit more wedding words than the second (about Batman) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
-
Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
-
At least one Entso-e supranational brownout or blackout or rolling blackout above 15 min. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-09-17; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2023-04-10.
-
My long tweet about making predictions will get 2,000–10,000 impressions in the first 48 hours (without a self RT) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-08; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-09.
-
Uli is not subscribed to Discord Nitro? ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09; known on 2023-04-09; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09.
-
I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2023-03-29; judged wrong by sortega on 2023-04-08.
-
I will sell 500–900 copies during MMT's official five-day BookBub Featured Deal period (provided I spend less than $800 in supplemental ads) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-04-05; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-07.
-
I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19; judged right by kadavy on 2023-04-06.
-
I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-09-22; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
-
I will get a grade of 1.7 or better in the final exam of Probability Theory ( 50% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-10-26; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
-
The “Bush did 9/11” – " " vector (block 23) works in order to generate conspiratorial completions for the prompt “Barack Obama was born in”. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-04-04; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
-
X-vector in GPT2 isn't just driven by sequence position of x-vector tokens. ( 70% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
-
status.twitter.com SSL certificate will be fixed before April 1, 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-02.
-
I will visit this site again in the following week. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rudyon on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by rudyon on 2023-04-01.
-
Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-30.
-
Subtracting the mouse-translation vector will make lower mouse go into lower wall, or vice-versa for addition (make the upper mouse stop at imagined wall). ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-14; known on 2023-03-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
-
Cheese vector and top-right vector will compose in Procgen maze environment (i.e. you can non-destructively apply both at once, and get at least some of their effects). ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-15; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
-
X vector works in environments besides Procgen ( 97% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-11; known on 2023-06-11; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
-
GPT-J-6B doesn't allow “Love”-“Hate” edit for “I don't wanna hang out with you anymore because”. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29.
-
GPT j 6b's wedding vector works (even tho Garrett said most didn't) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-28.
-
Bridget will visit the house this w/end ( 75% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-24; known on 2023-03-27; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-24.
-
I will get Henry or Austin to play SC2 by end of week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-12; judged right by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-23.
-
Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2023-03-21.
-
S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2023-03-19; known on 2023-03-20; judged wrong by Ygg on 2023-03-20.
-
At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
-
The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Kaivu on 2023-03-16; known on 2023-03-16; judged wrong by Kaivu on 2023-03-16.
-
Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
-
Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
-
AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
-
Specific attempt at cheese vector will work ( 10% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-13; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06.
-
The weather will mess up unloading on Thurs or Fri, causing a delay and/or a very late evening (>6pm). ( 5% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-03-11; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-11.
-
Modifying a maze env to have an extra-high up top right pathway, compared to the normal version, and then taking a top-right vector over this — will work comparably well to the cheese vector. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10; known on 2023-03-10; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10.