Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Biden cancels all outstanding student loan debt prior to 2019 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Bruce Reinhart is alive and well ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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German – US – Ukraine tank deal occurs ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-28.
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Manchester United beat Nottingham Forest in the first leg of their 2022/23 EFL Cup semi-final ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-01-26; judged right by panashe on 2023-01-25.
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I will meet Miss Pink Panther in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Checkers in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Sheep in person again. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Teeth in person again. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Propaganda in person again. ( 5% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Beige in person again. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph increases with n. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph oscillates with no clear pattern with increasing n. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph decreases monotonically with n. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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Miss Propaganda will reply to my feeler text ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2023-01-19; judged right by sungk2048 on 2023-01-20.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by account on 2023-01-16.
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Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-14.
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Ben and Adam will win the race to visit the most US states. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-12-21; known on 2023-01-04; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-01-13.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker of the house ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-05; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-07.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.