Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2010-08-20
  • gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_%28moon%29#Future_missions mentions a mission that could ideally arrive in 2023. Allowing for bureaucratic delays, 2030.on 2010-08-20
  • core  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-20.
  • gwern  judged this prediction unknown on 2010-08-20.
  • gwern said “How could you possibly judge this wrong already?on 2010-08-20
  • SilentWarrior  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “Life will be discovered on Titan.” on 2010-09-06
  • gwern  judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-06.
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Requires that we both successfully get the mission to Titan in that time frame and that there’s actually life there. on 2011-05-24
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-12
  • lavalamp estimated 8% on 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 3% on 2011-11-11
  • Grognor estimated 1% on 2011-12-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 4% and said “Reducing due to no signs of likely missions any time soon. on 2016-10-07

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