Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-02
  • gwern said “http://www.justsharethis.com/world-predictions-for-2011/on 2011-01-02
  • gwern changed their prediction from “Oil prices at >=$130 by Jan 2012” on 2011-01-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-01-03
  • gimpf estimated 50% and said “Major price changes in oil are often short-term speculation bubbles, based on whatever. Impossible to predict anything there.on 2011-01-09
  • scav estimated 70% and said “maybe the damaged economy won’t take >$100 oil for long, but shortages seem inevitable, so I call it plausible.on 2011-04-12
  • Konkvistador estimated 50% on 2011-07-21
  • mat33 estimated 30% on 2011-10-13
  • Artis estimated 70% on 2011-11-07
  • faws  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.

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