'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/3a4g” on 2011-01-10
• gimpf estimated 30% and said “Peak power maybe. But “actual electricity”, in GWh accumulated during a year, hm.” on 2011-01-10
• taw said “I made this prediction about actual electricity generated, not peak power or nameplate capacity.” on 2011-01-11
• Konkvistador estimated 30% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 30% and said “2017 stats: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg” on 2019-01-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 33% on 2019-01-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.