Gaddafi will be killed or captured

Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

• Dylan estimated 60% on 2011-09-08
• Jach estimated 70% on 2011-09-11
• Jach said “Presuming you mean within the timeframe of the prediction, maybe should make it more explicit.” on 2011-09-11
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-09-11
• fergus estimated 50% on 2011-09-15
• Ben Doherty estimated 40% on 2011-09-21
• faws estimated 26% on 2011-09-23
• Dylan   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.
• Dylan said “As of 30 November, Interpol is still looking for Colonel Gaddafi: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Interpol-widens-net-in-hunt-for-Gaddafi—sons/853723/ ” on 2011-09-30
• gwern said “only off by 20 days or so” on 2011-10-21
• Isaac said “why was this judged wrong? he was killed….” on 2011-10-25
• TrE said “isaacn16: The prediction was due september 30.” on 2011-10-25