Gaddafi will be killed or captured

Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

  • Dylan estimated 60% on 2011-09-08
  • Jach estimated 70% on 2011-09-11
  • Jach said “Presuming you mean within the timeframe of the prediction, maybe should make it more explicit.on 2011-09-11
  • Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-09-11
  • fergus estimated 50% on 2011-09-15
  • Ben Doherty estimated 40% on 2011-09-21
  • faws estimated 26% on 2011-09-23
  • Dylan  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.
  • Dylan said “As of 30 November, Interpol is still looking for Colonel Gaddafi: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Interpol-widens-net-in-hunt-for-Gaddafi—sons/853723/ on 2011-09-30
  • gwern said “only off by 20 days or soon 2011-10-21
  • Isaac said “why was this judged wrong? he was killed….on 2011-10-25
  • TrE said “isaacn16: The prediction was due september 30.on 2011-10-25

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