“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2011-11-28
• RobertLumley estimated 30% on 2011-11-28
• gwern estimated 15% and said “has something happened? last I heard he was still a laughingstock whose staff had quit twice or something” on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ said “New polls numbers are good and high profile endorsements.” on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ said “ See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/newt-gingrich-polls-lead-experience-knowledge_n_1108422.html and http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/1128/With-Union-Leader-endorsement-can-Newt-Gingrich-catch-Mitt-Romney ” on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “But by my estimate, this is just the Republicans trying to latch on to anyone but Romney. ” on 2011-11-28
• torekp estimated 20% and said “I give AnyoneButRomney better than 50% chance and Newt captures a good slice of that. BTW, strange choice of end date for this prediction.” on 2011-11-29
• HonoreDB estimated 18% on 2011-11-29
• herb estimated 25% on 2011-12-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2011-12-02
• fork estimated 20% on 2011-12-03
• RobertLumley estimated 20% and said “We’ll see. I’d like to put this lower, but the dearth of viable candidates makes it more likely.” on 2011-12-07
• gwern said “not sure whether to increase. I think he’s a terrible candidate who would be suicide against obama, but is that my personal dislike talking?” on 2011-12-07
• Ken estimated 10% on 2012-01-02
• Ken estimated 5% on 2012-01-02
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-10.