An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-21
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/8xl/is_anyone_else_worried_about_sopa_trying_to_do/5hl8?context=1#5hl8” on 2011-12-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% and said “SOPA isn’t the only thing that could cause this. Largescale disasters for example could cause a similar issue. ” on 2011-12-21
• Anubhav estimated 50% and said “I’m counting non-centralized (P2P-ish) systems here.” on 2011-12-21
• gwern estimated 10% and said “pretty skeptical. the existing DNS is so hardwired and assumed by basically everything in existence” on 2011-12-21
• muflax estimated 7% and said “widespread maybe, but more widely used?” on 2011-12-21
• Anubhav estimated 30% and said “Revising downward because gwern knows more about internet infrastructure than I do.” on 2011-12-22
• shokwave estimated 3% and said “wild speculation: 95% or more of the world has no clue what a DNS is, 90% of the internet population (the passive majority) won’t know why or how to change, our sample is skewed by the vocal minority of internet powerusers” on 2011-12-28
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-04-26
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-04-26
• beo_shaffer estimated 5% on 2012-04-26
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.