HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure)

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 10% and said “But if this was reality and not a foreshadowed story, it’d be >90%.” on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 5% and said “If the rule is, ‘Harry always does the one thing no one expects’, then here it is.” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 1% and said “I’d say ~20% except that this seems like it would make for weird pacing between the chapters.” on 2012-03-23
• anandjeyahar estimated 5% and said “Because on lesswrong thread Elliezer says he has a solution. ” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• Grognor estimated 4% and said “just no way” on 2012-03-23
• Grognor said “this prediction is that he doesn’t have a plan, right? not that he has a plan and it fails? oh blast it all, ambiguities and such” on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “I think I’d go with has no plan at all, not has any of the other plans which happens to fail” on 2012-03-23
• RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2012-03-27
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure)” on 2012-04-09