By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.

Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2012-08-04
• gwern said “Acceptable sources for judgment include newspapers, books, academic papers, etc. Does not have to be an official spokesmen (like that’ll ever happen). Outsourced groups like Blackwater count as government agencies. Any country is acceptable.” on 2012-08-04
• gwern said “‘autonomous’ here means that no human was in the loop at the final kill. so eg. putting in photos for facial recognition and automatic attack? = autonomous. specifying other patterns and no human otherwise in the loop? autonomous” on 2012-08-04
• RandomThinker said “Does this include collateral damage? Meaning the drone meant to bomb a building/or a car and it killed someone?” on 2012-08-05
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 60% and said “I assume excluding collateral damage, otherwise i would go much higher.” on 2012-08-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2012-08-05
• Porejide estimated 50% on 2012-08-05
• BrunoCoelho estimated 55% on 2012-08-08
• torekp estimated 60% on 2012-08-12
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “Even lower if you don’t include outsourced groups like Blackwater. Govt bureacracy relies on people. It’s not like private enterprise.” on 2012-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.amazon.com/Wired-War-Robotics-Revolution-Conflict/dp/0143116843/ claims it’ll never happen by the US, but on the other hand http://www.amazon.com/Governing-Lethal-Behavior-Autonomous-Robots/dp/1420085948/ …” on 2012-08-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2012-08-17
• kilobug estimated 70% on 2012-08-23
• Grognor said “This is really asking for the probability that it will appear in a newspaper, book, paper, etc., which is much lower” on 2012-08-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 63% on 2018-12-12
• krazemon estimated 60% on 2019-08-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 9% on 2019-08-31
• atzeje   judged this prediction right on 2022-05-23.
• atzeje said “https://www.overtdefense.com/2021/06/02/the-turkish-kargu-2-carries-out-the-first-autonomous-drone-attack-un-report-says/” on 2022-05-23