By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 21 days ago; known on 2022-06-01.

gwern will get married by 2090 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea 22 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.

Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by enolan 24 days ago; known on 2020-12-17.

Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet) ( 50% confidence )

Created by akarlin 24 days ago; known on 2021-03-15.

This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by akarlin 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-15.

Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by akarlin 24 days ago; known on 2020-11-15.

Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by akarlin 24 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mathieu_Putz 26 days ago; known on 2027-04-02.

Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 27 days ago; known on 2020-11-01.

Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea 27 days ago; known on 2041-01-01.

easy autotranscriptions of mp3's into text files will become commonplace by 2035 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea 27 days ago; known on 2036-01-01.

At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by amrav 29 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16.

Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04.

Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04.

By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03.

Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04.

Germanys unemployment rate will be above 5.6% at the end of 2020 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04.

still living in chicago on Aug 1 ( 70% confidence )

Created by joshuabecker on 2020-06-10; known in 20 days.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

By January 1. 2026, proven exists a function f(x) such that 1) x log x = o(f(x)) 2) if N is an odd perfect number with k distinct prime factors, then log N > f(k). ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2026-01-02.

Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.

North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.

By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-07; known on 2022-06-15.

Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )

Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16.

Sowmya will do any work (not including sending messages) for EpidemicForecasting.org between June 5, 2020 and Aug 31, 2020. ( 30% confidence )

Created by katriel on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-09-01.

At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.

Portugal – countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-01.

2021 Portuguese presidential election – Abstention higher than 50% ( 60% confidence )

Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-16.