OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 20 days ago; known on 2020-11-02.

OSU is online only by 28 September ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 20 days ago; known in 4 days.

Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by sam_jaques 20 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.

COVID, UK – On any day in September 2020, there are 2000 recorded new cases of COVID-19 in the UK. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known in 7 days.

Using my webcam teleprompter will bring me joy ( 85% confidence )

Created by grin 21 days ago; known on 2020-11-01.

I'll finish my webcam teleprompter and use it on at least one full call in September ( 73% confidence )

Created by grin 21 days ago; known in 7 days.

Basement construction will be finished by Sept 25 EOD ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by grin 21 days ago; known in 1 day.

The total number of deaths for at least one week in the Florida 2020-2021 flu season (as reported at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) will exceed 5,603. ( 90% confidence )

Created by gmcculley 21 days ago; known on 2021-03-01.

Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF 21 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.

Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens 22 days ago; known in 8 days.

North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by limbo 23 days ago; known on 2022-08-13.

I will make at least 30 predictions in september ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by grin 23 days ago; known in 7 days.

UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mpstevensuk 23 days ago; known in 21 days.

A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by mpstevensuk 23 days ago; known on 2021-03-15.

Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by product 24 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.

No one in my extended family will test positive for COVID && be hospitalized in September ( 70% confidence )

Created by fandangos 24 days ago; known in 5 days.

I won't catch COVID by the end of September or believe reasonably likely (say, >= 20%) that I did ( 80% confidence )

Created by fandangos 24 days ago; known in 6 days.

starlink has a public beta available before december 15 2020 ( 55% confidence )

Created by finback 24 days ago; known on 2020-12-15.

Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by arrowinthedark 25 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.

[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 25 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 25 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] If this occurs interest in Dark Fluid theories grows greatly (size of the Wikipedia page and the number of references to Popular Sci articles both double within a year of the non-discovery). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 25 days ago; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 25 days ago; known on 2025-12-31.

Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ 26 days ago; known on 2045-08-30.

SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback 27 days ago; known on 2020-11-01.

The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by finback 28 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01.

COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, in Edinburgh, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known in 6 days.

COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known in 6 days.

Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 31% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.

The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800) ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2025-03-01.

>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.

COVID, Germany – COVID death counts will go up whithin 8 weeks (Karl Lauterbach on Twitter) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-20; known in 25 days.

a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression ( 33% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-08-20; known on 2025-08-01.

I get Amazon student prime by EOY ( 60% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.