Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9306 | 12803 | 13304 | 13683 | 25246 | 6765 | 81107 |
Recent Predictions
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 22 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc 23 days ago; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 3 days ago.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc 23 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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University of Washington Seattle campus cancels at least 10% of its scheduled classes for spring quarter entirely within the first two weeks of scheduled classes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 26 days ago; known in 10 days.
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SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 27 days ago; known on 2021-12-31.
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The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo 27 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.
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LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital 28 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 28 days ago; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital 15 days ago.
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Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 28 days ago; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital 15 days ago.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison 29 days ago; known on 2020-05-15.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison 29 days ago; known on 2020-05-15.
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The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison 29 days ago; known on 2020-06-15.
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Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01.
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Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16.
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[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2036-01-01.
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Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known 5 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 9 days ago.
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Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known 5 days ago.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known 5 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 5 days ago.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known 16 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 22 days ago.
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Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-05.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, US – Conditional on no Democratic candidate receiving a majority of delegates by 2020 June 7, Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-10-01.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake 15 days ago.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known in 26 days; judged right by suitecake 15 days ago.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known 4 days ago; judged right by suitecake 15 days ago.
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2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA). ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EnergyParade on 2020-02-26; known on 2021-04-15.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk 4 days ago.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely 27 days ago.
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Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-24; known on 2075-04-05.
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Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2090-01-01.