Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 67% | 76% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 8249 | 11273 | 11521 | 11508 | 22727 | 6042 | 71320 |
Recent Predictions
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight ( 44% confidence )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known on 2019-12-22.
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[Fighting] Rick Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 ( 86% confidence )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known on 2019-12-22.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 6 days; judged right by Cato 9 days ago.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 27 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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The Red Sox will win the world series. ( 75% confidence )
Created by williamsmithpennstate 27 days ago; known on 2019-10-16.
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The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hserl 28 days ago; known on 2100-07-16.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26.
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Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25.
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The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17.
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I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-14.
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[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 13% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.
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[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 87% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have gained seats in general election ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.