Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 58% | 66% | 76% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 7505 | 10301 | 10209 | 10389 | 21154 | 5593 | 65151 |
Recent Predictions
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known 19 days ago.
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By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30.
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Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known in 12 days.
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Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01.
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Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-10; known 18 days ago; judged right by amadeu 19 days ago.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-16.
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Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-08; known 16 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 8 days ago.
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IE (not Edge) market share between 15-30% ( 70% confidence )
Created by rk on 2018-11-06; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by rk on 2018-11-06.
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Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 10 days ago.
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Politics, US – Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 16 days ago; judged right by Jennifer 14 days ago.
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Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known 16 days ago; judged right by Jennifer 14 days ago.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by notsonewuser on 2018-11-01; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser on 2018-11-11.
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[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 9 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 9 days ago; judged right by amadeu 9 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 9 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 9 days ago.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known 9 days ago; judged wrong by amadeu 9 days ago.
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ACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 15 days; judged wrong by marianne 21 days ago.
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ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 15 days; judged right by marianne 21 days ago.
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ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 15 days; judged right by marianne 21 days ago.
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ACE will announce GFI as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known in 15 days; judged right by marianne 21 days ago.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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Politics, US – California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-08.
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Tech – Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known 16 days ago.
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Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.
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Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-19; known on 2018-10-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01.
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One of my specs is screwed up ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Charge cord doesn't reach ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 8 days ago.
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Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known 16 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 8 days ago.
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Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-14; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-15.
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Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.
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Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-10-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11.
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1000+ Twitter followers ( 4% confidence )
Created by arun on 2018-10-11; known on 2020-12-31.
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I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )
Created by notsonewuser on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by notsonewuser on 2018-10-19.
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Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 70% confidence )
Created by notsonewuser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10.
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Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known 16 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 8 days ago.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06.
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Alex and Jenny will be home ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.