[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2021-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-12-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2029-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-10-01.

Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2021-10-01.

By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by saskboy 21 days ago; known on 2020-08-15.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-12-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-11-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-11-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-03-01.

CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-05-01.

CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-05-01.

Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2026-08-01.

By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2018-10-01.

On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2029-01-01.

North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter 22 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.

Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead 22 days ago; known on 2018-01-05.

Stormfront comes back up ( 49% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2017-12-31.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2017-12-31.

more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2018-06-16.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

There will be at least one planeswalker in the upcoming MTG set Unstable ( 99% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 26 days ago; known on 2017-12-08.

Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil 28 days ago; known on 2019-08-23.

I can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil 28 days ago; known on 2019-08-24.