PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10738	14808	15341	16083	29319	7667	93956

Recent Predictions

Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atzeje on 2021-09-11; known on 2022-01-01.
COVID has become the new War on Terror. It has been used to justify increased authoritarian encroachment, and it is still ongoing. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deangc on 2021-09-10; known on 2025-09-10.
At least one of the two ESSLLI 2022 proposals I have participated in will be accepted ( 90% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-10; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-20.
We will have three sessions of the ILFC Seminar by the end of 2021. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-09; known on 2022-01-01.
HAN VAN DUC 41T / 2100079494 Hình ảnh u lớn thận trái chảy máu theo dõi RCC (T2N0Mx). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
PHẠM VĂN TUYÊN / VDUH^2100079540 Hình ảnh u trong túi thừa bàng quang /Viêm bàng quang mạn tính. Tiền liệt tuyến sau mổ hiện không thấy bất thường tín hiệu. Chảy máu ống phóng tinh trái. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
TRỊNH VĂN TUYÊN / VDUH^2100079710 Hình ảnh u trung thất sau bên phải ngang mức T2-T3 như mô tả nghĩ tới schwannoma. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.
TRỊNH MAI TẠO / VDUH^2100079782 high grade glioma ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
BẾ ANH KHÔI / VDUH^2100079603 Hình ảnh u não thất bên bên trái lan – não thất ba gây giãn lớn não thất trên lều, nghĩ tới central neurocytoma. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
VŨ THỊ MÙI / VDUH^2100079601 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-15.
NGUYỄN KIM BẢO / VDUH^2100079612 Hình ảnh tổn thương xẹp thân đốt sống L2 lan vào cuống sống và cung sau tạo khối xâm lấn xung quanh như mô tả, chưa loại trừ u mô bào X, đề nghị phối hợp sinh thiết. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
LƯỜNG THỊ SƯƠNG / VDUH^2100079613 Hỉnh ảnh tổn thương chóp tủy như mô tả nghĩ đến nghĩ đến tổn thương viêm, đề nghị theo dõi và đánh giá lại sau đợt điều trị. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22.
NGUYỄN NGỌC TƯỜNG VY 11 Hình ảnh u vùng trên yên, theo dõi u sọ hầu, gây giãn não thất. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.
I will be divorced by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-01-01.
Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-02-15.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by December 2021 ( 20% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-16.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ will be resolved as ambiguous or cancelled before resolution ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2021-09-07; known on 2036-01-01.
Lucas and I will have written a book on negation in event semantics by the end of 2025 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-07; known on 2025-12-31.
The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known 24 days ago.
On my 45th birthday, I still won't have any child. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2036-01-05.
Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01.
Emmanuel Macron will with the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01.
I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01.
We won’t have a hurricane that’s worse than Wednesday’s ( 95% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-20.
We move to Level 2 (or 2.5) next Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-08; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08.
I will exist in a purely virtual form by 2070 ( 10% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2070-01-01.
The Great Filter is virtual reality. (Specifically: by 2100, humanity will see no reason to leave earth as we will be able to explore the galaxy within our simulated worlds.) ( 50% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2100-01-01.
Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.
Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known on 2022-10-01.
My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-09-01; known on 2022-01-01.
Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.
New Zealand will repeal the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.
In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )

Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14.
The storm will be “bad” in NY (3 in. rain) History ( 20% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-04.
I will find my niche within EA ( 10% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-03.
I will reflect back on today as a disappointment ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
My wife will feel better. Because of past track record, circumstances of her condition ( 80% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-09-02; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-03.
I will have a new job by the end of the year, or will have change the project I am working on significantly ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-01.
Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known in 16 days.
Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.
Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.
ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02.
We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.
Nguyen Luong Nhat Anh 15 glioma doi thi ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.
Phan anh trường ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.
I will have at least 4 headaches this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
After recovering, my back will go out again within three weeks ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known 4 days ago.