SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-02-01.

Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-14.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 3% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )

Created by pdf 10 days ago; known on 2021-06-15.

sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 11 days ago; known on 2022-01-02.

in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 11 days ago; known on 2023-01-02.

Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 11 days ago; known on 2022-01-02.

PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Taylorb 17 days ago; known 16 days ago.

[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known 4 days ago.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-12-01.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known in 28 days.

ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue 23 days ago; known 2 days ago.

[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known in 27 days.

[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known in 27 days.

[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-05-21.

[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-06-02.

No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig 24 days ago; known in 18 days.

bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by htaussig 24 days ago; known on 2022-02-08.

AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )

Created by srconstantin 24 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by srconstantin 24 days ago; known in 28 days.

50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig 25 days ago; known on 2021-07-06.

Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig 25 days ago; known on 2023-02-06.

World War 3 next year ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig 25 days ago; known on 2022-02-06.

All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig 26 days ago; known on 2021-09-10.

My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )

Created by aarmai19 27 days ago; known in 12 days.