There will be a major uncontrolled forest fire in northern half of France (north of Clermont Ferrand, eg. Sologne or other forrests) due to increased heat, poor forest management and fire hazards ( 75% confidence )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.

New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.

BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.

BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 10% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.

Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.

At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.

Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known 20 days ago.

When will GCSE Exam Qs be live on the platform for students? Background: Exam Qs must be available for use by students on the platform for bio, chem, and phys, for AQA, Edexcel & IGCSE. Outcome: April 5th – 25th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.

Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.

Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.

I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.

Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.

I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )

Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.

The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.

John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25.

I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.

By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.

I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2024-01-01.

I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )

Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.

My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known in 13 days.

I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.

I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.

Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known in 29 days.

China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.