Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 85% confidence )

Created by chemotaxis101 17 days ago; known on 2020-12-27.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-06-30.

Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2032-01-01.

China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

“We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025” ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2026-05-01.

In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 18 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 19 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.

[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kallman 19 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman 20 days ago; known on 2022-07-01.

I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence )

Created by waveman 20 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

April 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by batemancapital 20 days ago; known on 2020-04-30.

January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital 20 days ago; known in 10 days.

U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by batemancapital 20 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.