PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11070	15376	15868	16609	30108	7850	96881

The Biden administration officially claims that China has provided military assistance to Russia for its invasion in Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-14; known on 2025-01-20.

Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01.

Russia won't be disconnected from global internet as of Mar 11, 2022 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by denisp on 2022-03-10; known on 2022-03-12; judged right by denisp on 2022-03-12.

NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01.

I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, March 9, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.

I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.

Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-09; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 16 days ago.

US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01.

The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-03-16.

I will complete at least six Pomodori on Tuesday, March 8 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks ( 80% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, March 8, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

At end of March break, my school will be on full masking. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-29.

Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-07; known in 14 days.

Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.

(The Hurt Locker) The young guy will die. ( 60% confidence )

Created by rlourie on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-03-06; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-03-06.

Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by MesterSnaps on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01.

Lee Jae-myung will win the 2022 presidential election of Republic of Korea. ( 70% confidence )

Created by ysc on 2022-03-05; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by ysc on 2022-03-09.

Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

I will be in bed before midnight each night this week ( 30% confidence )

Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.

Cease fire this week holds for > 24 hours ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.

Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.

Russia stops delivering gas to Germany before deadline ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.

[I will be back home] never (won't make it back home) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] after March 31, 2022 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] between March 18, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] between March 4, 2022 and March 17, 2022 (inclusive) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] on or before March 3, 2022 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

By 2032, it will be generally accepted among neuroscientists that the brain substantially relies on non-quantum substrate-dependent computations. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2022-02-26; known on 2032-01-01.

Russia is disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-02.

World – Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? ( 30% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known in 13 days.

Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.

Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.

World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01.

Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known 13 days ago.

World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.

Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01.

World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Thursday, February 24 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will show up to ethics class on time on Thursday, February 24 (and arrive by 3:30pm EST) ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will pray at least five times on Thursday, February 24, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 9pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 12pm EST ( 80% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will do two legit Pomodori by 2pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will exercise for at least 30 min in the CRC by 9pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, February 23 (EST) ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, February 22 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.

I will get back to G by 9pm EST on Friday, February 25 ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-26.

I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Tuesday, February 22 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 88% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.

World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02.

Ich werde mich am Freitag betrinken ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-27.

liz will die of covid by feb 27 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God 21 days ago.

alex will cry within the next three weeks ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-03-07; judged wrong by God 21 days ago.

russia will invade ukraine before may 2022 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known 17 days ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.

I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19.

Fiction, Glowfic – Albe from “A dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court” is really Queen Abrogail in disguise. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-26.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by alexashton on 2022-02-21.

Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing buying and selling in markets by the 1st of July 2022 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.

Ich werde bei Tilman an der BA schreiben ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-21.

Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.

Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known in about 7 hours.

Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

EA – EAGxBoston 2022 takes place the first weekend of April 2022 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-05.

Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known about 17 hours ago.

COVID, UK – Queen Elizabeth II is publicly confirmed to have COVID before 2022-02-20 05:00 UTC ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-20.

World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

EA – The most cost effective charity on GiveWell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet is a Vitamin A supplementation charity at the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01.

Politics, UK – Boris Johnson resigns before March 2022 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

EA – 80k jobs board bot is finished by Mar 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.

I will spend at least five hours on ML interview prep on Tuesday, February 15 by 11pm EST ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-02-16; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-16.

Personal, Productivity – I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

Éric Zemmour obtiendra un score supérieur à celui de Marine le Pen au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2022-02-14; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by 0uGiL on 2022-04-17.

Hollow Knight: Silksong releases in 2022. ( 55% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-12-31.

The subreddit PurplePillDebate will hit 100,000 subscribers by July 8th 2022 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by MarkFreed on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-07-08.

I will spend at least four hours on February 12, 2021 (EST) on studying machine learning ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-15.

The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01.

The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01.

[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known in 3 days; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.

At least one fatality related to truck protests in Canada by March 15. ( 61% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-16.

In Weir's Artemis, ZAFO is a ebbz grzcrengher fhcrepbaqhpgbe. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.

Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.

Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Valeria ( 50% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-08.

Statistics

Recent Predictions