Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11653 | 16240 | 16689 | 17377 | 31095 | 7982 | 101036 |
Recent Predictions
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Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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Ethan will throw up tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by matan on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-03-06; judged wrong by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-06.
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Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
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BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.
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In small mazes (<6×6), c55 doesn't pos activate on cheese very reliably (>1.5x false negative rate compared to larger mazes). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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I will see Andrea in California. ( 65% confidence )
Created by arrivals on 2023-02-27; known on 2023-03-02; judged right by arrivals on 2023-03-04.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.
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Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known 20 days ago.
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Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.
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I will shoot 85 or under tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-02-22; known on 2023-02-23; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-02-23.
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Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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When scale=1, the policy network will still have at least one translation-equivariant cheese-detecting conv channel in block2.res1.resadd_out. ( 90% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-21; known on 2023-02-28; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-02-22.
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greater than 70% of habits completed this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged wrong by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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complete thesis draft up to gene-level results by next wk ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged right by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.
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Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.
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[When i get my score] I get ≤515 MCAT ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged right by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get 515-518 MCAT ( 60% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get ≥518 MCAT ( 10% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.
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Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.
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I will win my next multiplayer Mario Kart game (against human players) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-15; known on 2024-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-03-03.
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At least one of the three UAPs shot down remains publicly unidentified ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-14; known on 2024-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-18.
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I fall while ice skating tomorrow ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-15.
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I will resolve this prediction as “right” ( 100% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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DSJ says “yup yup yup” ( 40% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Will I at LEAST kiss J tonight? ( 10% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2023-02-13; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by pancakemouse on 2023-02-14.
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there is a spoof that makes me glad I watched the super bowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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trey hits vape within 5 (five) minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-12; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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richie makes a comment about Ella tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Richie and I get dinner on Tuesday ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by rlourie on 2023-02-15.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan get into a dispute about Israel-Palestine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan dominate conversation about Israel-Palestine ( 95% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01.
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Carlsen wins the Airthings Master Grand Final ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-12; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-14.
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I have sex tomorrow ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-11; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-11.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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The Los Angeles Clippers beat the New York Knicks on February 5, 2023 ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05; known on 2023-02-05; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05.
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-04-16; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-16.
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Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2023-01-31; known on 2023-02-28; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2023-02-28.
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I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Manchester United beat Reading in the 4th round of the 2022/23 FA Cup ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-01-29; judged right by panashe on 2023-01-30.
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Manchester United beat Nottingham Forest in the first leg of their 2022/23 EFL Cup semi-final ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-01-26; judged right by panashe on 2023-01-25.
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I will sell between 400 and 800 copies of 100 Word Writing Habit by the end of April. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-05-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-05-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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German – US – Ukraine tank deal occurs ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-28.
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By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.
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I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.
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Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )
Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Statistically significant propensity to go to nearby-cheese, controlling for shortest-path-distance and position in maze relative to top-right corner (goal misgeneralization networks, behavioral tests) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-01-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-22.
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My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known in 13 days.
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I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.
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I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.
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Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known in 29 days.
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Ukrainians will maintain control of Bakhmut through to January 31st ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by branperr on 2023-01-06; known on 2023-01-31; judged unknown by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-09.
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Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker of the house ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known 1 day ago; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-07.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )
Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.
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I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-03-01.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-14.
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PE; shock ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reblocke on 2022-12-26; known on 2022-12-26; judged wrong by reblocke on 2022-12-26.
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Ben and Adam will win the race to visit the most US states. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-12-21; known on 2023-01-04; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-01-13.