PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10625	14635	15156	15911	29093	7619	93039

Recent Predictions

Personal – In 5 years I will go back to school for a grad program ( 50% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2026-06-28.
Personal – In 1 year I will move to Missoula, MT ( 35% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.
Personal – In 1 year I will move or have a firm plan to move (housing lined up, house for sale etc.) ( 60% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.
Joe Biden's renewed interest in the Lab Leak theory was entirely politically motivated. ( 75% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.
China knew origins of Covid-19 before the rest of the world and did not disclose that information ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.
The wuhan wet market did not facilitate the spread of Covid-19 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.
Covid-19 was intentionally released from a lab ( 10% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.
Covid-19 escaped from a lab ( 30% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.
If I were to learn a new undergraduate level math subject, I'd choose to employ an AI system over a paid tutor (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
I would prefer speaking to an AI system over a human for legal advice (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 35% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
I prefer speaking an AI system to a human for medical advice (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
Personal – I get an email back from T by deadline. ( 52% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-27; known on 2021-07-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-30.
[In the anime Odd Taxi]: Lhxv Zvgfhln'f xvyyre vf ure ercynprzrag, Fnxhen Jnqntnxv ( 75% confidence )

Created by Levenbrech on 2021-06-24; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by Levenbrech on 2021-06-28.
John McAfee faked his own death ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known 15 days ago; judged right by qznc 14 days ago.
Personal – I have a deployed service for HWToday that I am using for something by deadline. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-28.
Personal, Productivity – I finish an hour of interview soft question practice by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-21.
Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )

Created by two2thehead on 2021-06-18; known on 2026-06-18.
Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-17; known on 2021-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-18.
NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-23; judged right by Deepak 29 days ago.
I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-06-22.
P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )

Created by pseudotilitarian on 2021-06-13; known in 20 days.
COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir 25 days ago.
COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.
Personal – The shirts I have ordered fit sufficiently well that I don't purchase others to replace them. ( 67% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
Politics, Israel – Lapid forms coalition government by deadline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-03; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.
Personal – I have successfully replaced my suit by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known 29 days ago; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
I have strep - history of sore throat, current pollen - 5-15% of adult throat inflammation is bacterial - no fever ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2021-05-28; known on 2021-05-26; judged right by technillogue on 2021-05-28.
At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01.
A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known on 2022-05-15.
In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir 25 days ago.
COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.
[I will go to Italy] Before August 31 ( 40% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.
[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba'f pynvz abg gb xabj Arhsryq'f erfrnepu vf n yvr ( 90% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Gur ebznapr fhocybg vf n erq ureevat ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Arhsryq srnef Oenqr orpnhfr bs Naqrefba'f yvrf ( 80% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01.
We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.