PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	66%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7682	10587	10509	10740	21693	5673	66884

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-06-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-08-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-09-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-10-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by xdxdxd 16 days ago; known on 2050-03-01.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by notsonewuser 16 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by notsonewuser 9 days ago.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Price in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-10-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books ( 1% confidence )