Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9618 | 13123 | 13705 | 14306 | 26068 | 6987 | 83807 |
Recent Predictions
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Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test ( 50% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-04-27; judged right by evand on 2020-05-09.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-05-11.
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Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known in 17 days.
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Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known in 17 days.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal – I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known in 26 days.
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[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10.
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Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21.
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One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this. ( 45% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-22; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31.
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>1000 tons of oil spills between May 1st 2020 and May 1st 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2020-04-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-06-04.
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People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.
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a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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More money is added to the SBA PPP program in 2020 ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03.
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Remdesivir approved by the FDA by the end of July 2020 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18; known in 17 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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U.S. 10-year bond yield dips below 0.25 in 2020 ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2020-12-31.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Kindergartens in Germany will open again in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-08.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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The car is Alex's ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13; known on 2020-04-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13.
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US Corona-virus lock downs will end in May ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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Sweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pvoberstein on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known 4 days ago; judged right by JoshuaZ 4 days ago.
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Ben gets reference to “Don't stutter” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-12.
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Ben gets the reference to “Germany”` ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09.
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13 million people infected with COVID-19 before there's a vaccine available, if any, by mid-June. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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UVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bradleybossard on 2020-04-07; known on 2020-04-17; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18.
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ES futures will range between 2575 and 2650 between Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT and market open Tue 4/7/20 6:30am PT. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-07; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-07.
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SPY will be no lower than 250 for the rest of this week (Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT – Fri 4/10/20 1pm PT market close). ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged right by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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SPY will stay below 270 this week (before 1pm PT close on Friday 4/6/20) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 80% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16.
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Will take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known in 16 days; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M ( 30% confidence )
Created by Rsfinley23 on 2020-04-04; known on 2020-05-15.
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I will finish the BOM before general conference ( 85% confidence )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2020-04-04; judged right by credunkist on 2020-04-05.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03.