Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11733 | 16396 | 16867 | 17532 | 31239 | 8007 | 101774 |
Recent Predictions
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Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
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Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.
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Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-13.
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I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )
Created by mgerov on 2022-11-06; known on 2023-01-01.
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Republicans have what is widely regarded as a blowout election in their favor at the midterms, including taking both the House and Senate. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-02; known on 2022-11-10; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-10.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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t ( 30% confidence )
Created by tara on 2022-10-31; known on 2022-10-31.
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Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-29; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-01.
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The climate book will contain 1 sentence devoted to how challeging it will be to solve how we produce reliable electrical energy. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2022-10-29; known on 2022-11-05; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2022-12-15.
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Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known 30 days ago.
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Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] never ( 10% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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I will get a grade of 1.7 or better in the final exam of Probability Theory ( 50% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-10-26; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
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PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Steven will not like you back on hinge ( 99% confidence )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-10-26; known on 2022-11-09; judged right by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-11-17.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known on 2023-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-06-15.
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I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will not regret going to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2022-11-19; judged right by kadavy on 2022-11-20.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 25,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of 2022. ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-01-01.
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The sun will rise tomorrow. ( 99% confidence )
Created by djt5532 on 2022-10-20; known on 2022-10-21; judged right by djt5532 on 2022-10-20.
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I'm going to manage to figure out how to align what I want to want and what I do want by the end of the year ( 70% confidence )
Created by rajlego on 2022-10-14; known on 2023-01-01.
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I'm going to get blocks setup so that i check messaging once a day before 5 pm on laptop/only use phone for them by next Wednesday ( 80% confidence )
Created by rajlego on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-19.
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temp ( 20% confidence )
Created by tara on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-14; judged wrong by tara on 2022-10-25.
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test ( 10% confidence )
Created by tara on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-14.
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Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.93e+23 days? ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 98% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -5.19915e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the forecasts be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 75 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1340 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.9579 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 3.5976667e-4 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -1.08226e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1.8994e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than orequal to 1.4922e-5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085? ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-09-22; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-09-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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At least one Entso-e supranational brownout or blackout or rolling blackout above 15 min. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-09-17; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2023-04-10.
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Kamala Harris will attend the Queen's funeral ( 65% confidence )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-09-15; known on 2022-12-19.
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The rest of the world will recognize that if it ain't Dutch, it ain't much before the end of this century. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by n00bn0bb3r on 2022-09-13; known on 2999-12-31; judged unknown by rlourie on 2022-09-15.
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What We Owe the Future will still be on the NYT best seller list until at least September 14 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
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No danish general election will be called in the next week ( 75% confidence )
Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
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The US Govt ban on Nvidia selling datacenter GPUs in China is lifted by 2030 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to the New York Times ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-05; known on 2025-06-01.
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Lab grown meat will become the primary source of global meat production by 2060 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jewstinbeac on 2022-09-02; known on 2060-01-01.
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By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01.
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If Trump is indicted in D.C., he will move for change-of-venue on the grounds that no impartial jury can be selected due to aggregate political prejudice of D.C. voters ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-26; known on 2028-01-01.
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Heroku will be sunset or at least rebranded (“Salesforce Cloud”) and closed off new registrations (e.g. “contact us”) by 2027. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-25; known on 2027-01-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in (not “by”) my September 2022 income report. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-10-15; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in my August 2022 income report. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
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Starship to do a full-stack launch by end of 2022. ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Biden cancels all outstanding student loan debt prior to 2019 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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House of the Dragon to have a better first episode than Rings of Power, as judged by me ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2022-09-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-04.
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Bruce Reinhart is alive and well ( 99% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Mike Pence alive ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will start a PhD by 2027 ( 60% confidence )
Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will get a mortgage in 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2023-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Gas prices go up in one week ( 80% confidence )
Created by skcdsjfdfs on 2022-08-09; known on 2022-08-10.