PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	58%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11370	15851	16307	17040	30591	7888	99047

World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.

Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.

World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Thursday, February 24 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will show up to ethics class on time on Thursday, February 24 (and arrive by 3:30pm EST) ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will pray at least five times on Thursday, February 24, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 9pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 12pm EST ( 80% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will do two legit Pomodori by 2pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will exercise for at least 30 min in the CRC by 9pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, February 23 (EST) ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, February 22 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.

I will get back to G by 9pm EST on Friday, February 25 ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-26.

I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Tuesday, February 22 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 88% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.

World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.

Ich werde mich am Freitag betrinken ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-27.

liz will die of covid by feb 27 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.

alex will cry within the next three weeks ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-03-07; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.

russia will invade ukraine before may 2022 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.

I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19.

Fiction, Glowfic – Albe from “A dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court” is really Queen Abrogail in disguise. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-26.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by alexashton on 2022-02-21.

Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-03.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing buying and selling in markets by the 1st of July 2022 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.

Ich werde bei Tilman an der BA schreiben ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-21.

Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.

Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.

Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known in 28 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-11.

Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

EA – EAGxBoston 2022 takes place the first weekend of April 2022 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-05.

Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.

COVID, UK – Queen Elizabeth II is publicly confirmed to have COVID before 2022-02-20 05:00 UTC ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-20.

World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known in 28 days.

EA – The most cost effective charity on GiveWell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet is a Vitamin A supplementation charity at the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known in 28 days.

COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known in 28 days.

World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known in 28 days.

Politics, UK – Boris Johnson resigns before March 2022 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

EA – 80k jobs board bot is finished by Mar 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.

I will spend at least five hours on ML interview prep on Tuesday, February 15 by 11pm EST ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-02-16; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-16.

Personal, Productivity – I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

Éric Zemmour obtiendra un score supérieur à celui de Marine le Pen au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2022-02-14; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by 0uGiL on 2022-04-17.

Hollow Knight: Silksong releases in 2022. ( 55% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2022-02-12; known in 27 days.

The subreddit PurplePillDebate will hit 100,000 subscribers by July 8th 2022 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by MarkFreed on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-07-08; judged right by MarkFreed on 2022-10-04.

I will spend at least four hours on February 12, 2021 (EST) on studying machine learning ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-15.

The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known in 28 days.

The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known in 28 days.

[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-05-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.

At least one fatality related to truck protests in Canada by March 15. ( 61% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-16.

In Weir's Artemis, ZAFO is a ebbz grzcrengher fhcrepbaqhpgbe. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.

Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.

Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Valeria ( 50% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-08.

JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-06.

Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.

I will exercise and study ML for at least 30 minutes on February 2 by 9pm EST ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-02-03; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-03.

Consensus that B/Yamagata influenza completed eliminated by January 1, 2026. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-31; known on 2026-01-01.

I will have sex with Greta ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-30; known on 2022-03-31; judged wrong by ActuallyGreta on 2022-04-01.

Ich werde drei von fünf Tagen diese Woche vor dem Mensen in der Bib sein ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-30; known on 2022-02-06; judged right by Jeedo on 2022-02-03.

palmeiras não será tricampeão da libertadores ( 100% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known in 12 days.

internacional não será campeão gaúcho ( 87% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.

fluminense será campeão carioca ( 77% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.

paulinho será eleito para a seleção do paulistão ( 68% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.

Paper on total difference labeling published in journal by end of year. ( 64% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-26; known in 28 days.

Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known in 28 days.

Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known in 27 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.

I do not think Belinda will secure funding from Tanya ( 65% confidence )

Created by rlourie on 2022-01-24; known on 2022-01-24; judged right by rlourie on 2022-01-24.

Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01.

Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01.

Apple stock prices will go over 170 after annual report is released ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by he666 on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-01-28; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06.

Le premier clip de Cent-quatorze sera fini en 2022. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2022-01-21; known in 27 days.

By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.

Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-02-04.

Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-02.

I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by _galvo_ on 2022-01-17; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.

WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-04-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-18.

New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by galaga on 2022-02-24.

I will have a higher average happiness score then last week ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-01-23; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-01-23.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.

CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.

At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-02.

Georgia Tech wins its basketball game against UNC on Saturday, January 15 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.

All Georgia Tech students will be asked to go home before the end of the semester ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-05-15.

At least 60 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-24.

At least one Effective Altruism @ GT board member will get COVID-19 during the Spring 2022 semester ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.

In-person learning at Emory will resume on January 31 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-02; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-02.

All Georgia Tech classes go remote during the Spring 2022 semester ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15.

No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known in 29 days; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will remain in power as of May 15, 2022. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Luke on 2022-01-11; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.

At least 1 of the 9 people in I&M who are attending Hereticon will test positive for COVID before Jan 23. ( 70% confidence )

Created by andymatuschak on 2022-01-09; known on 2022-01-23; judged right by andymatuschak on 2022-01-19.

M's PCR comes back positive ( 25% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09; known on 2022-01-13; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09.

SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known in 28 days.

Statistics

Recent Predictions