Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 76% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 8726 | 12032 | 12428 | 12668 | 23571 | 6266 | 75691 |
Recent Predictions
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 20 days ago.
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Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known 20 days ago; judged right by batemancapital 20 days ago.
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Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2020-09-22.
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Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital 20 days ago.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27.
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29.
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UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-30.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-07.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-07.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-07.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-08-09.