Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11620 | 16196 | 16634 | 17333 | 31059 | 7976 | 100818 |
Recent Predictions
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3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
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e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by oakbound on 2022-06-01.
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2205034201 sán lá gan?? Bạch cầu ưa acid 50% ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25.
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2205036329 VÕ THỊ TRANG Viêm đường mật do IgG4 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205036197 NGUYỄN THỊ THÚY Kí sinh trùng áp xe gan? ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25.
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2205037123 HOÀNG THỊ LÙNG u ác tính xâm lấn đầu xương cánh tay? di căn? sarcoma xương ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-05-23; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205026563 VY VĂN HỢP Giãn đường mật trong gan, nhiều hạch hoại tử dọc ĐM chủ=> Klatskin hay so sán lá gan??? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-19; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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1901019297 NGUYỄN VĂN THÁI u dưới niêm mạc thực quản: GIST/ leiomyoma? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-18; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205027885 NGUYỄN PHƯƠNG MAI Khối đặc giảm âm, ngấm thuốc kém nhu mô lách/ U máu gan => có phải u máu lách không điển hình không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-18; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16; judged right by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27.
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I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.
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A week goes by without any more attempted mass shootings/attacks in the US ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-20.
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Clouduknguyen_95 realizes he can make predictions in private mode (“visible to creator”), and decides to stop leaking people's medical information ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-19.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205026284 NGUYỄN THỊ THẢO Hình ảnh khối tổ chức ngấm thuốc khoang cảnh bên phải – theo dõi Schwannoma dây X (chưa loại trừ u cuộn cảnh). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-05-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205012150 TÔ THU HÀ Lymphocytic hypophysitis hay u tuyến yên???? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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NGUYỄN NGỌC HẢI 2205026787 Rách thân – sừng sau sụn chêm trong độ III ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-05-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01; judged right by LouisLC on 2022-11-01.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-11-21.
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2205009708 DƯƠNG THỊ HÒA tổn thương chứa máu bán cấp phần phụ bên phải – theo dõi nang lạc nội mạc tử cung. Buồng trứng đa nang hai bên. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205018514 ĐẶNG NHƯ HIẾU Orbital myositis ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2002000730 LÊ QUANG HƯNG Ganglion cyst khuỷu trái ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2204044707 PHAN THỊ TỚI Hình ảnh theo dõi lạcnội mạc trong cơ tử cung lan tỏa. Nhân xơ tử cung. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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increasingly strict regulations on hrt, surgery, for adults. in particular, rules that impact clinics' ability to provide drugs and surgeries in the next 4 years. ( 76% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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CL will not win the next N23 trivia quiz ;-) ( 89% confidence )
Created by TheOrme on 2022-05-05; known on 2022-12-31.
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Madison Cawthorn reelected ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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Josh Hawley runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )
Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.
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Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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No rockets in Ukraine for 2+ consecutive months by New Year ( 25% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31; judged unknown by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-29.
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I've spent 200 hours on one particular project ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-10-22.
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I picked a major professional goal ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.
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I will get to 12% bodyfat by the end of 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.
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Valve will release True Sight for The International 10 on or before June 30, 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-04-21; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-02.
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Airplane mask mandate in the US to be legally in force for at least one day between now and May 15th. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-16.
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Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19.
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Tapetum-Lucidum does not make any more metapredictions, after this one, until 2023 ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19.
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kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-30.
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The moon will explode within a billion years ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kriscooper000 on 2022-04-12; known on 2022-04-12; judged unknown by sty.silver on 2022-04-30.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir Le Pen devançant Macron au premier tour? ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged wrong by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir un second tour Macron Le Pen? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged right by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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A magical/mystic/ancient/god character will make an appearance. (Dr. Strange/Blade/Morbius/Eternals/Loki/etc.) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A Daredevil-verse character will make a cameo ( 4% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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She-hulk will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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Blade will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A new character from an upcoming show/movie will make a cameo ( 30% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A previously seen character will make a cameo ( 60% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A supporting character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A MAIN character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 10% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A Marvel character from another TV series will make a cameo. ( 65% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A non-Moon Knight Marvel character will make a cameo ( 100% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.
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2 hours of One Minute Thought — schedule, podcast apps etc (repurpose Radio Browser Feed) ( 80% confidence )
Created by mbu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-07; judged right by mbu on 2022-04-07.
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Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-25; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Ashley and I will make it to the movies. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ooga on 2022-04-03; known on 2022-04-03; judged unknown by rlourie on 2022-04-30.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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The 7-day moving average of Covid deaths (as tracked by the New York Times) will be less than 1000 people on April 4, 2022. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-04-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-10.
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Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
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Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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I leave the country before mosh starts. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29; known on 2022-06-28; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-08-15.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid on January 1, 2023. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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I will have put online an experiment by next weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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GDP growth will not resume to the pre-covid trajectory. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-04.
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Odessa will not be invaded by Russia by April 3rd ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-03; judged right by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
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Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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we will sit at the same table in the bryn mawr room. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-22; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29.
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Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by oakbound on 2022-03-28.