PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10896	15100	15616	16319	29756	7772	95459

Recent Predictions

I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )

Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known 3 days ago.
Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.
Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.
I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by atzeje 15 days ago.
[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.
[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-03-31.
I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.
I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.
I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known 18 days ago; judged right by lazydope 26 days ago.
I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.
I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01.
I will get a first vaccine shot by end of may ( 75% confidence )

Created by dstephens99 on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by dstephens99 on 2021-06-01.
I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-04-22; judged right by dmwit on 2021-04-22.
Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.
Heike Behnke gct ( 80% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-03-26; known on 2021-04-01.
Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged right by lui on 2021-03-29.
SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.
Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
I won't wake up sick tommorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by sallatik on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-03-23.
Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.
Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.
Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
humans on mars by 2030 ( 30% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
My bike will be where I left it yesterday, near Helenelund station. #crime #environment ( 85% confidence )

Created by sallatik on 2021-03-20; known on 2021-03-20; judged right by sallatik on 2021-03-20.
Based on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBdcRGsqr8 The one in the blue dress was the mole. ( 50% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-19; known on 2021-03-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-19.
I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by vcavallo on 2021-03-18; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by vcavallo on 2021-04-01.
Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
Personal, Productivity – I extend my choiceworthiness model in Guestimate with cash transfers by deadline. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-17.
Personal, Productivity – I read (not necessarily make flashcards for) another chapter of my math textbook by deadline. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
Personal, Productivity – I read and make flashcards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-20.
India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.
“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.
Daniel wants to talk with me about his podcast. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-11; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-11.
andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.
COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known 18 days ago.
COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Kshenoy 3 days ago.
RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by evand on 2021-06-27.
If SpaceX's SN10 launch happens today, it will land successfully, defined as upright and with no explosions. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-03-03; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-04.
A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.
joe biden dies in presidency ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.
humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon SwSh DLC ( 33% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Let's Go Johto ( 25% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2071-01-01.
A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.
A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.
New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.
I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-25; known on 2021-03-09; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.
I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by krazemon 17 days ago.
Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
Moderna, Pfizer, or AstraZeneca produce an updated COVID vaccine targeting a mutation in 2021 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-11.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 76 and 128 million (inclusive). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 40 and 75 million (inclusive). ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-02-24; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between June 1st and July 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between January 9th and March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by krazemon 17 days ago.
Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon 17 days ago.
Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-22.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by krazemon 17 days ago.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon 17 days ago.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon 17 days ago.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon 17 days ago.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 18 days ago; judged right by krazemon 17 days ago.