PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	58%	67%	76%	88%	92%
Sample Size	8249	11273	11521	11508	22727	6042	71320

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for January 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-02-25.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-03-25.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for March 2020 to exceed 110 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-04-25.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for April 2020 to exceed 110 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-25.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25.

[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10.

Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known in 6 days.

US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known in 6 days.

GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01.

Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01.

Para el mes 10 de 2019 habre terminado la certificacion de frontend developer de freecodecamp. ( 40% confidence )

Created by estebanf2019 on 2019-05-27; known in 7 days.

Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01.

S&P 500 will close the year read ( 85% confidence )

Created by checkpooh on 2019-05-26; known on 2020-01-01.

This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.

Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-24; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-05-24.

Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )

Created by stepan on 2019-05-22; known on 2019-05-26; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-05-26.

OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.

IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01.

At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-11-04.

N is sent back to Russia ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01.

EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-21; known on 2020-01-01.

Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga 2 days ago.

Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02.

From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2023-05-02.

Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.

Austria's vice chancellor to resign by June 30 ( 90% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-18; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-18.

Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2020-05-01.

Austria to call an early election ( 80% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-18; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-18.

The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-17; known on 2025-01-01.

Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14.

[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15.

[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )