PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	68%	77%	88%	93%
Sample Size	9762	13438	14020	14674	26580	7137	85611

[Zvi's article] Mentions the election ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

[Zvi's article] Mentions that all sports should be in a bubble ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

[Zvi's article] interprets the week as negative overall ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

[Zvi's article] interprets the week as strongly positive overall ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

[Zvi's article] interprets the week as moderately positive overall ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

[Zvi's article] interprets the week as weakly positive overall ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

Sprouts order matches what I ordered ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.

Able to find Pete via reference number ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

Answer right away next time I call ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

Pakistan beat England in first Test 2020 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-09.

Daily increase in coronavirus cases is >= 2.0% ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05.

Sprouts has frozen green peas in stock ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

SendGrid responds to my help request this week ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.

I can get free Sprouts delivery from Sprouts ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.

Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as VP (during campaign) ( 70% confidence )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11.

there will be a huge explosion again.. ( 50% confidence )

Created by smodnix on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-07; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-16.

All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04.

I will write one (new) post on my effort post blog ( 30% confidence )

Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by vincentluczkow 7 days ago.

I will write one post on my math blog. ( 80% confidence )

Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-07.

[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …in a landslide by Joe Biden. The voter suppression strategy didn't work. ( 60% confidence )

Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30.

[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30.

[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …narrowly by Joe Biden. His popular vote win will be massive but due to voter suppression and structural advantages his electoral college margin will be small. ( 70% confidence )

Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30.

Podcast runs for 2+ hours ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.

S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-04.

UK does not exceed 5000 confirmed Coronavirus cases in a single day by the end of 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques 1 day ago.

Bk. will not try Anki (or at least tell me he did) until the end of the month ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known 27 days ago.

No new major mandatory isolation law or something similar in the city I am currently living this week ( 70% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I won't have finished reading either Superforecasting, Faust or the law book by the end of the week ( 75% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-10.

I will have contacted my prof Am. by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I will have trained a NN with mean relative error (for some reasonable definition of it) across all 3 channels <= 15% by the end of the week (even if I use other people's data) ( 65% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I will have finished both of the macro chapters by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I will have finished studying all the probability distributions by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I will have made a push-up with reasonable (not necessarily perfect) form on the floor until the end of August ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known 27 days ago; judged right by fandangos 26 days ago.

I won't have finished all pieces from Part A of the sight singing program until the end of August ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known 27 days ago; judged right by fandangos 26 days ago.

I won't have finished Unit 7 of the sight singing program by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

I won't have finished (being reasonably satisfied with melodies / chords) transcription of Moondog piece by the end of the month ( 40% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known 27 days ago; judged right by fandangos 26 days ago.

[I won't finish (being reasonably satisfied with the chords / melodies) transcribing the piece by Moondog] by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.

Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-03-02.

India will have higher total (cumulative) confirmed COVID-19 cases than the US at some point before December 31 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2022-01-02.

India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03.

90%+ on quiz ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.

The answer is body talk ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.

Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 60% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-02-02.

I get the emailing a spreadsheet thing working today ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.

[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Nuggets ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.

[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Lakers ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.

[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Raptors ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.

[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Sixers (my reason is because of their home vs away record and bad seed) ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.

Noodles taste better cold ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02.

[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Steven Nelson ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.

Statistics

Recent Predictions