Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10578 | 14563 | 15092 | 15832 | 28995 | 7572 | 92632 |
Recent Predictions
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
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Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
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Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
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NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2021-02-22; known 9 days ago; judged right by pdf 8 days ago.
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sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.
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in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02.
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Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged right by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16.
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Will talk with Mali today ( 85% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
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Everyone will be at the EA meeting tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-17; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
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PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Taylorb on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16.
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Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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Abi and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 99% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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[Self] I have meditated at least 11 of 14 days from now until March ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-02-26.
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[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01.
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[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known in 8 days.
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COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known 23 days ago.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021 ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.
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Teddy will go to Annisquam ( 80% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-14.
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ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-03-02; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-03-11.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-05-21.
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[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known 22 days ago.
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No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-03-22.
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Won't get the first EA Speaker I emailed ( 90% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-14.
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bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08.
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bitcoin worth less than 44k in 1 week ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-15; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known 23 days ago.
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Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-04-01.
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Talk with Natalie tonight ( 20% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-02-08; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-08.
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50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known in 12 days.
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06.
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All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10.
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Land a kickflip today ( 60% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-02-07; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-07.
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My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-03-16; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2021-04-16.
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I'll still be sitting in this room in 1 minute. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-05.
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I'm going to strength train (in the sense of completing 5 sets of some barbell exercise), when I wake up tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-10.
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Personal, Productivity – I do two hours work for G by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-06.
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I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01.