PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	66%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7505	10301	10209	10389	21154	5593	65151

OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by notsonewuser on 2018-08-05.

Sangram will able to beat me at Blobby Volleyball in the next 50 days ( 80% confidence )

Created by shardo on 2018-07-23; known on 2018-09-11; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.

david kim wins primary in ga-07 ( 30% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-07-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.

john james wins mi senate gop primary ( 80% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-08-19; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Rashida Tlaib loses primary (bet on it) ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-08-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

dc min wage referendum passes ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-07-17; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-17.

The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )

Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.

Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.

Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known in 15 days.

I will have visited every city in this province by 2018 EOY. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known in 15 days.

UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.

UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.

UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-08-10; judged wrong by bm on 2018-08-17.

UK Politics: Another cabinet resignation this week ( 56% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-25.

Personal, Productivity – I finish my ML course before 2018-07-09 9:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-08; known on 2018-07-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.

The July 7th post on Aaron's Polls will get 40 responses or more. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2018-07-07; known on 2018-07-10; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-07-10.

Personal, Social – I go to the AW social group on 2018-08-09. ( 73% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-05; known on 2018-08-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.

Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.

The Keyholder will win the Heaven or Hell prestige class contest on Giants in the Playground ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-08-30.

The ETL Daily – Monthly Metrics will crash on the 07/04 ( 70% confidence )

Created by malafp on 2018-07-03; known on 2018-07-04.

The 2018 Safra conference on AI is open to the public ( 90% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-07-02; known 14 days ago.

It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14.

My June 30th post on my personal Facebook polling group will get more than 30 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/293306464388556/ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-07-07.

My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by imaxwell on 2018-06-30; known in 14 days.

Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.

Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29.

Prediction: By December 31st, 2019, AMD will sell a commercially available 48-core, 96-thread desktop CPU, compatible with currently available motherboards, costing $2,000 USD or less (before tax, shipping, cooler etc). ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2020-01-01.

The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 ( 85% confidence )

Created by gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Tumblr user the-real-numbers has not found a regularity in SHA-256 based on neural networks. ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2018-06-22; known on 2018-06-29.

Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.

OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-23.

HK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known in 15 days.

Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.

No new US tariffs on Chinese goods to go into effect on July 6. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-10.

Germany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-06-29.

Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2020-11-04.

SITSA Act is signed into law. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by avi on 2018-06-17; known in 15 days.

The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Politics, UK – Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-06.

Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

APS El1 by 2023 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by arun on 2018-06-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by max on 2018-06-15; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.

Aaron – 1on1 – Uses the phrase “Over-Engineering” ( 80% confidence )

Created by zach.riddle on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-06-15.

For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.

Statistics

Recent Predictions