PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10491	14423	14919	15676	28689	7539	91737

Recent Predictions

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 14 days.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 14 days.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 14 days.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 14 days.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 14 days.
An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.
19.12.1982 Solitärer fibröser Tumor myxoides Stroma/Hämangioperizytom Schwannom ( 60% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-01-27.
[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02.
There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.
No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30.
[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.910 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.773 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.650 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] < .608 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] > $6.1 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] < $4.6 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
L frontal pilocytic astrocytoma MRN: 036220407 ( 70% confidence )

Created by mohalagha1987 on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-25.
[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 1-2 deaths ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 0 deaths ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
The petrodollar will be dismantled by the end of 2040. ( 51% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.
There will be large scale rioting in US in early 2021 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by D0TheMath 23 days ago.
The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
In a year, Parler 0 will still be offline 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler ( 60% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 8 days ago.
Trump will not be convicted by the Senate before January 20th ( 99% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 90% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-07-16.
My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15.
in bed (by promise definition) by 11.15pm on 16th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 11pm ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-17; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.
in bed (by promise definition) by 10.15pm on 17th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 10pm ( 90% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-18; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.
My average estimated sleep time for week of Jan 16th will be 8 hours or greater ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-23; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-25.
My daylio monthly average mood for Feb 2021 will be +0.5 or greater (on usual scoring system) ( 2% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.
I will make an appointment/ask to make an appointment with a therapist by 15th Feb 2021 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-11.
I will be in bed by 10.45pm tonight 15 Jan (according to definition I was using for promises, w/o the 'friends approve' exceptions), ( 30% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-16.
I will make at least 3 and resolve at least 3 predictions (on predictionbook or another prediction app/site) in each full week in feb ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.