Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 49% | 58% | 66% | 76% | 87% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 6380 | 8677 | 8400 | 8493 | 14922 | 4682 | 51554 |
Recent Predictions
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Personal, Business Interactions – I actually have my Internet connection being served by BT before the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known 18 days ago.
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2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-21; known on 2018-02-01.
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Politics, Italy – C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-07-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-30.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known 18 days ago.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, US – General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known 18 days ago.
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Business, UK – Boots reduces price on a version of Levonelle (including generic or non-branded) to below £20 before the 1st of September 2017. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known 18 days ago; judged right by Pablo Stafforini 18 days ago.
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ETC forks in relation to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/183982 before ETH ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by bobpage on 2017-08-20.
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Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07.
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I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 27 days.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 12 days.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 12 days.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.
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I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known 3 days ago.
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I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known in 26 days.
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I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known 4 days ago; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known on 2019-01-01.
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http://saneoualhadath.me ( 0% confidence )
Created by saneoualhadath on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15.
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I will go two weeks without reading logged-in Twitter this year ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage on 2017-07-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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I will get married before 30 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2030-09-09.
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I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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July 14 Soyuz Kanopus-V-IK launches successfully ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-14.
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I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-13; known on 2030-12-31.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23.
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Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.
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Joni will find the fact that I love this site funny, but unsurprising ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10; known on 2017-07-10; judged right by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10.
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I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by bobpage on 2017-07-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Pablo Stafforini 6 days ago.
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Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-24.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Business, US – Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-15.
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My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-12.
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EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-08-07; judged right by Pablo Stafforini on 2017-08-08.
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When I ask DW, he will tell me that he did successfully submit an EA Grant by the deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-07-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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During my Cincinnati to Chicago bus trip, my plant will tip over and lose soil or otherwise get damaged. ( 50% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-06.
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Space X July 5 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e launches successfully ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-06.
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EA, Animal Welfare – Animal Charity Evaluators recommends Direct Action Everywhere by the end of 2017. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-05; known on 2018-01-01.
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The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2017-07-03; known in 11 days; judged right by bobpage 7 days ago.
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I get my damage deposit back for my apartment (conditional on moving out / deadline extended as needed) ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $1400 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.