Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10707 | 14740 | 15278 | 16031 | 29258 | 7657 | 93671 |
Recent Predictions
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01.
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We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for chapter 11 of CtCI by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-13; known on 2021-05-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-16.
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Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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We will walk out of doctor’s appointment after 3 pm ( 60% confidence )
Created by Yitz on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged right by Yitz on 2021-05-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.
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There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.
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SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-06-15.
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Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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behnke 13.02.1965 GCT ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-06-01.
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known in 10 days.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known in 10 days.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known 5 days ago.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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I will break my 251 day Anki review streak within my lifetime. (Wait… who is going to resolve this question?) ( 4% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2221-04-25.
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I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.
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26.05.1963 08.04.21 DNET MVNT ( 80% confidence )
Created by Almatter on 2021-04-23; known on 2021-05-23.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.
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AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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btc at 100k+ in two years ( 60% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19.
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eth at 5k+ in a year ( 50% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19.
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known in 10 days.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-19.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.
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Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by casey123 on 2021-04-29.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.
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Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01.
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The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 76% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.
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I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.