Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10401 | 14256 | 14735 | 15447 | 28071 | 7482 | 90392 |
Recent Predictions
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Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-12-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-05.
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ACIW finishes the day more than 3 percent up ( 75% confidence )
Created by KwameA on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-21; judged wrong by KwameA on 2020-10-20.
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1190432 MCN maligne entartet ( 75% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-23.
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In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known 16 days ago; judged right by kuudes 19 days ago.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01.
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China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2020-10-13; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by sjy on 2020-11-01.
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COVID, UK – It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known 22 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 13 days ago.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known 1 day ago.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known 1 day ago.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
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Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-08; known 15 days ago; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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I'll have listed all my “any” and “1month” items to sell ( 90% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2020-10-12; judged right by pdf on 2020-10-12.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture) ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used ( 20% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, marine cloud brightening is used ( 30% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Trump ] recovers and looses ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and wins ( 31% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known in 6 days; judged wrong by sty.silver 16 days ago.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-28; known on 2020-10-10; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-11.
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Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-16.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Baeboo 15 days ago.
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-28.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-09-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-09-27.
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I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-09-25; known on 2021-02-22.
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2020-09-25; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2020-10-05.
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https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 60% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24.
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Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )
Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 7 days ago.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-22; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-09-21; known in 5 days; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-11-09.
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Basement construction will be finished by Oct 2 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-21; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-05.
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VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-09-21; known on 2025-09-20.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 16 days ago.
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COVID, UK – Pubs have restricted opening hours (including but not requiring full closure), at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently lifted. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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9252916 Liposarkom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-09-15; known on 2020-09-22.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir 13 days ago.