PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Bruce Reinhart is alive and well ( 99% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

Mike Pence alive ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-18; known in 6 days.

I will start a PhD by 2027 ( 60% confidence )

Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2027-01-01.

I will get a mortgage in 2022 ( 80% confidence )

Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2023-01-01.

George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.

A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.

Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-10; known in 6 days; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.

Gas prices go up in one week ( 80% confidence )

Created by skcdsjfdfs on 2022-08-09; known on 2022-08-10.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.

One British Pound (£1 GBP) will trade for less than One US Dollar ($1 USD) before the end of 2022 ( 95% confidence )

Created by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2023-01-01.

Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02; known on 2022-12-08; judged right by peterbarnett on 2023-01-02.

[We will throw away the current data] within a year ( 70% confidence )

Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01.

[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )

Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-11-02.

[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )

Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-09-13.

Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-10.

Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.

Kari Lake will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by nmehndir on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-04.

Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

Conjecture is at least somewhat often referred to as “The ‘Ject’”, as judged by either Ian or Tamera saying it is (only one has to agree) on November 15th 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-11-15.

I won’t complete another in-person semester at UPenn before the end of 2023 ( 60% confidence )

Created by tamera on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-12-31.

There will be SERI MATS 3, within 2 years. ( 82% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2024-07-28; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.

I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending August 7th. ( 55% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-08; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-08.

I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending July 31st. ( 60% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02.

I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.

I will resolve all of the predictions I will make today once they are running out, within one week of them running out (for events that have a resolution deadline within one week of the end of SERI MATS). ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-22; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-22.

I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.

Training a new adversarial policy against kata1-b40c256-s11840935168-d2898845681 at 1600 playouts using the same hyperparameters we've been using thus far will fail to achieve a win rate of more than 50%. ( 70% confidence )

Created by norabelrose on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-24.

There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

The adversarial policies we've trained as of July 27, 2022 will have a win rate of under 50% against the medium KataGo checkpoint at 512 playouts with the hardened passing policy proposed by Tony. ( 85% confidence )

Created by norabelrose on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-30.

I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.

Will I die in the next 1 minute? ( 0% confidence )

Created by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-28; judged wrong by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28.

At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.

Burning Man will not receive an event permit from the BLM for 2022 ( 30% confidence )

Created by rbierle on 2022-07-25; known on 2022-08-16.

As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average oscillate between more and less confusion? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.

As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become less confused? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.

As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become more confused? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-07-18.

I will see my godfather next week. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Ygg on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-19; judged right by Ygg on 2022-08-01.

I will email Beth and one other person about my project today ( 90% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-16; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-07-16.

More people in Africa will die of Anti-microbial resistant infection ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by APON on 2022-07-13; known on 2027-07-13; judged right by adil on 2022-07-20.

The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph oscillates with no clear pattern with increasing n. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.

The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph decreases monotonically with n. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.

The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph increases with n. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-01-22.

I'm going to write at least 15000 words for the novel idea that came to me last night in a dream by 2023. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2022-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-07-17.

P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.

By this data the goal I currently think is the most important one to me will be the same. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by Soren on 2022-10-04.

I will have at least one specific aspect of my life personal data collection/analysis has improved in my life. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-10-04.

Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known in 6 days.

Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.

On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.

2206008001 NGUYỄN THỊ DUNG Hình ảnh khối tổn thương ngấm thuốc góc dưới ngoài vú trái có hoại tử trung tâm (Kaiser Score 8 điểm – BIRADS 5). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-11.

2206045074 CAO QUỲNH GIANG Hình ảnh khối tổn thương trong phần mềm dưới da vùng má phải chủ yếu là tín hiệu xơ. neurofibroma? ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-18.

2206045654 NGUYỄN NGỌC KHÔI u tế bào khổng lồ bao gân gấp (Giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-18.

Kliemannsland will have rebranded or closed by the end of 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leifa on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-12-31.

Medijastinuma tvorba 696396 ( 95% confidence )

Created by kpausek on 2022-06-26; known on 2022-07-10.

Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.

I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.

I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.

I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.

I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 ( 45% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Mckiev on 2023-01-01.

80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known in 6 days.

2206041762 Hình ảnh các khối u trong ống sống ngang mức T12—>L2 và L4—>S2, theo dõi Myxopapillary ependymoma, chèn ép nón tủy và đuôi ngựa ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-22; known on 2022-07-13.

Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.

5 or more people on the second meeting EA ( 95% confidence )

Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-18.

Monkeypox reaches 50 in MA by July 1st ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-01.

CS gas used indoors in the US before 2029 ( 16% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2022-06-12; known on 2028-01-01.

Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.

Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-24.

Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-01.

I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-29.

Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known in 6 days; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-09.

Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )

Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.

Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.

Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-26.

Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

2205048464 dày thành đại tràng sigma ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-15.

2205049129 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải, có nốt đặc hạn chế khuếch tán và ngấm thuốc ở thành (ORADS 4). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.

2205053916 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải có vỏ và vách mỏng ngấm thuốc, ranh giới rõ (O-RADS 3). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.

2104041357 LÊ THỊ HỒNG HIỂN Hình ảnh cấu trúc dạng nang nằm sát bờ dưới khớp cùng chậu phải, dịch bên trong không đồng nhất => Sinh thiết: ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-08.

2202008115 NGUYỄN KHẮC HƯỞNG Hình ảnh tuyến liền liệt tăng kích thước, hạn chế khuếch tán và tăng ngấm thuốc lan tỏa – hướng tới tổn thương viêm. Phù nề, thâm nhiễm kèm ít dịch quanh tuyến lan xuống phần mềm phía trước xương cụt. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.

2102013739 PHẠM VĂN LUÂN nang cạnh sụn chêm trong ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.

The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known in 30 days.

The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.

2205042200 VŨ DUY VỊNH Hình ảnh u thận phải, có phần thải thuốc và có vỏ- nghĩ đến RCC. Nang nhỏ thận phải. Nang nhỏ gan. Theo dõi sỏi thận trái ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.

2205043310 Hamartoma hạ đồi ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-09; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.

[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.

[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.

Statistics

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