Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9425 | 12923 | 13441 | 13947 | 25562 | 6862 | 82160 |
Recent Predictions
-
Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
-
Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
-
Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
-
Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
-
Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
-
Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
-
Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
-
[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
-
[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
-
[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 26 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 31 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 9% confidence; 32 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 13% confidence; 30 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 36% confidence; 40 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 40% confidence; 43 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
-
There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
-
Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
-
Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
-
[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by shinyhare on 2020-01-18; known on 2023-01-19.
-
Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shinyhare on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
-
[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by shinyhare on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shinyhare on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
-
California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01.
-
The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
-
Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
-
Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
-
Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
-
Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
-
Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
-
[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-03-08.
-
[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) ( 95% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.
-
Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.
-
Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.
-
After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.
-
Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01.
-
The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01.