PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	68%	77%	88%	93%
Sample Size	9644	13197	13764	14380	26188	7015	84188

Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.

Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known 3 days ago.

Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known in 28 days.

Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25.

Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.

Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.

Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.

Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.

Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.

Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.

Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 65% confidence )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 75% confidence )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

Personal, Productivity – I exercise by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-31; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-31.

Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.

Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01.

Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith prior to the start of November 2020. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.

Politics, US – One or more police officers arrested or has a case brought to a grand jury in connection with death of George Floyd by end of June 2020. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-29.

Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.

Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.

Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.

By the end of 2025, in Luxembourg, there will be some form of an autonomous taxi-fleet that can take you from rue Michel Lentz Strassen to rue Charles Tornaco Luxembourg. (chosen more or less randomly) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.

Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22.

Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 ( 80% confidence )

Created by smodnix on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-05-23.

The car outside is my papa john’s delivery ( 70% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-05-28; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28.

It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 30% confidence )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-27; known on 2020-12-25.

Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022 ( 100% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2020-05-27; known on 2022-05-27.

Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.

If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.

A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.

Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode ( 60% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.

None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-25.

All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow ( 65% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.

Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.

T will come to the party tomorrow ( 40% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged wrong by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.

This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-01.

I have no idea ( 50% confidence )

Created by Humuani on 2020-05-24; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by Humuani on 2020-05-24.

Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. ( 33% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.

Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. ( 50% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01.

Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01.

Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.

Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.

Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )