Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11070 | 15380 | 15869 | 16611 | 30111 | 7850 | 96891 |
Recent Predictions
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Junior doctor's will strike against the decision of a 3% rise ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-22; known on 2022-07-01.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01.
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New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.
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Between August 1 and December 31 2021, the UK will experience a 24 hour period where over 1,000 Covid related deaths are recorded ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2021-07-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gurgus on 2022-01-01.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-08-18.
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< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-08-29.
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Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-19.
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X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Wallat J Granulom/Fettgewebsnekrose und keine Endometriose ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-07-08; known on 2021-07-26.
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The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 40% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-06-30 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-12-31 ( 22% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-06-30 ( 16% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-12-31 ( 12% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-06-30 ( 8% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-06-30 ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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I finish my first draft of an EA Forum post, and share. ( 60% confidence )
Created by giljuand on 2021-07-01; known on 2021-07-09; judged wrong by giljuand on 2021-07-09.
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Personal – My new job will be in the technology sector ( 45% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged right by Goddess 21 days ago.
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Personal – it will take me less than 2 months to find a job ( 85% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged wrong by Goddess 21 days ago.
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Personal – It will take me 1 month or less to find a new job ( 55% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15.
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Personal – I will have fully left my current position by Sept. 10th ( 80% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by EricClampton on 2021-09-10.
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Personal – In 5 years I will go back to school for a grad program ( 50% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2026-06-28.
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Personal – In 1 year I will move to Missoula, MT ( 35% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.
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Personal – In 1 year I will move or have a firm plan to move (housing lined up, house for sale etc.) ( 60% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.
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Joe Biden's renewed interest in the Lab Leak theory was entirely politically motivated. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God 24 days ago.
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China knew origins of Covid-19 before the rest of the world and did not disclose that information ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by God on 2022-04-01.
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The wuhan wet market did not facilitate the spread of Covid-19 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God 24 days ago.
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Covid-19 was intentionally released from a lab ( 10% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by randpaul2024 on 2022-04-01.
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Covid-19 escaped from a lab ( 30% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by randpaul2024 on 2022-04-01.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Personal – I get an email back from T by deadline. ( 52% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-27; known on 2021-07-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-30.
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[In the anime Odd Taxi]: Lhxv Zvgfhln'f xvyyre vf ure ercynprzrag, Fnxhen Jnqntnxv ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-24; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-28.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-07-21; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-21.
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Personal – I have a deployed service for HWToday that I am using for something by deadline. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-28.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish an hour of interview soft question practice by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-21.
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-06-18; known on 2026-06-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-17; known on 2021-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-18.
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NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-23; judged right by Deepak on 2021-07-07.
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I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-06-22.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
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No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2021-06-13; known on 2021-08-25.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.
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Personal – The shirts I have ordered fit sufficiently well that I don't purchase others to replace them. ( 67% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
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COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
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Politics, Israel – Lapid forms coalition government by deadline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-03; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Personal – I have successfully replaced my suit by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
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Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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I have strep - history of sore throat, current pollen - 5-15% of adult throat inflammation is bacterial - no fever ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2021-05-28; known on 2021-05-26; judged right by technillogue on 2021-05-28.
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At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 6 days ago.
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In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
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[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by vlad.proex on 2021-10-01.
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[I will go to Italy] Before August 31 ( 40% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by vlad.proex on 2021-10-01.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba'f pynvz abg gb xabj Arhsryq'f erfrnepu vf n yvr ( 90% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Gur ebznapr fhocybg vf n erq ureevat ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Arhsryq srnef Oenqr orpnhfr bs Naqrefba'f yvrf ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for chapter 11 of CtCI by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-13; known on 2021-05-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-16.
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Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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We will walk out of doctor’s appointment after 3 pm ( 60% confidence )
Created by Yitz on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged right by Yitz on 2021-05-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.
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There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.
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SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-06-15.
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Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by ianc on 2022-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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behnke 13.02.1965 GCT ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-06-01.
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known on 2021-09-15.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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I will break my 251 day Anki review streak within my lifetime. (Wait… who is going to resolve this question?) ( 4% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2221-04-25.
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I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.
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26.05.1963 08.04.21 DNET MVNT ( 80% confidence )
Created by Almatter on 2021-04-23; known on 2021-05-23.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.