PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	58%	67%	76%	88%	92%
Sample Size	8361	11430	11707	11719	22891	6105	72213

Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk 30 days ago; known on 2020-08-16.

The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by predoindk 30 days ago; known on 2020-08-16.

Treasury bonds yield ends lower for the day after Powell delivers Jackson Hole speech ( 65% confidence )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-22; known 29 days ago; judged right by batemancapital 29 days ago.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known on 2022-09-01.

sha256 b7ef0c292e294fa4a8a61db591b60d35b5afa21260c3b2e7a9c0c4da45b675f3 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2019-08-17; known on 2019-08-17; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-17.

Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01.

AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01.

AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01.

The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01.

[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01.

Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01.

[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 46% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )