Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11733 | 16396 | 16867 | 17532 | 31239 | 8007 | 101774 |
Recent Predictions
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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One British Pound (£1 GBP) will trade for less than One US Dollar ($1 USD) before the end of 2022 ( 95% confidence )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2023-01-01.
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Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02; known on 2022-12-08; judged right by peterbarnett on 2023-01-02.
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[We will throw away the current data] within a year ( 70% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01.
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[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-11-02.
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[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-09-13.
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Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10.
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Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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Kari Lake will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by nmehndir on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-04.
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Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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Conjecture is at least somewhat often referred to as “The ‘Ject’”, as judged by either Ian or Tamera saying it is (only one has to agree) on November 15th 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-11-15.
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I won’t complete another in-person semester at UPenn before the end of 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by tamera on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-12-31.
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There will be SERI MATS 3, within 2 years. ( 82% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2024-07-28; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending August 7th. ( 55% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-08; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-08.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending July 31st. ( 60% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02.
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I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.
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Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-22; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-22.
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I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.
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Created by norabelrose on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-24.
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There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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Created by norabelrose on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-30.
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I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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Will I die in the next 1 minute? ( 0% confidence )
Created by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-28; judged wrong by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28.
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At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.
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Burning Man will not receive an event permit from the BLM for 2022 ( 30% confidence )
Created by rbierle on 2022-07-25; known on 2022-08-16.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average oscillate between more and less confusion? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become less confused? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become more confused? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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I will see my godfather next week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-19; judged right by Ygg on 2022-08-01.
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I will email Beth and one other person about my project today ( 90% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-16; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-07-16.
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More people in Africa will die of Anti-microbial resistant infection ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by APON on 2022-07-13; known on 2027-07-13; judged right by adil on 2022-07-20.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph oscillates with no clear pattern with increasing n. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph decreases monotonically with n. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph increases with n. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I'm going to write at least 15000 words for the novel idea that came to me last night in a dream by 2023. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-07-17.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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By this data the goal I currently think is the most important one to me will be the same. ( 97% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by Soren on 2022-10-04.
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I will have at least one specific aspect of my life personal data collection/analysis has improved in my life. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-10-04.
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Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.
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2206008001 NGUYỄN THỊ DUNG Hình ảnh khối tổn thương ngấm thuốc góc dưới ngoài vú trái có hoại tử trung tâm (Kaiser Score 8 điểm – BIRADS 5). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-11.
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2206045074 CAO QUỲNH GIANG Hình ảnh khối tổn thương trong phần mềm dưới da vùng má phải chủ yếu là tín hiệu xơ. neurofibroma? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-18.
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2206045654 NGUYỄN NGỌC KHÔI u tế bào khổng lồ bao gân gấp (Giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-07-18.
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Kliemannsland will have rebranded or closed by the end of 2022. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leifa on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-12-31.
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Medijastinuma tvorba 696396 ( 95% confidence )
Created by kpausek on 2022-06-26; known on 2022-07-10.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 ( 45% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Mckiev on 2023-01-01.
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80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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2206041762 Hình ảnh các khối u trong ống sống ngang mức T12—>L2 và L4—>S2, theo dõi Myxopapillary ependymoma, chèn ép nón tủy và đuôi ngựa ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-22; known on 2022-07-13.
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Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.
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5 or more people on the second meeting EA ( 95% confidence )
Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-18.
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Monkeypox reaches 50 in MA by July 1st ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-01.
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CS gas used indoors in the US before 2029 ( 16% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2022-06-12; known on 2028-01-01.
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Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-24.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-01.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-29.
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Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-09.
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Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )
Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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2205048464 dày thành đại tràng sigma ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-15.
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2205049129 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải, có nốt đặc hạn chế khuếch tán và ngấm thuốc ở thành (ORADS 4). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2205053916 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải có vỏ và vách mỏng ngấm thuốc, ranh giới rõ (O-RADS 3). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2104041357 LÊ THỊ HỒNG HIỂN Hình ảnh cấu trúc dạng nang nằm sát bờ dưới khớp cùng chậu phải, dịch bên trong không đồng nhất => Sinh thiết: ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-08.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2102013739 PHẠM VĂN LUÂN nang cạnh sụn chêm trong ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known on 2025-01-25.
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The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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2205042200 VŨ DUY VỊNH Hình ảnh u thận phải, có phần thải thuốc và có vỏ- nghĩ đến RCC. Nang nhỏ thận phải. Nang nhỏ gan. Theo dõi sỏi thận trái ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205043310 Hamartoma hạ đồi ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-09; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-05-27.
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220504464 pilocystic astrocytoma tiểu não phải ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205041948 ung thư hay viêm tiền liệt tuyến ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-15; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205020046 Hình ảnh khối u sùi lớn trực tràng giữa, có nhiều hạch lân cận, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, theo dõi xâm lấn mạch máu (T3cN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (+)). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.