PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	67%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7971	10961	11067	11108	22317	5817	69241

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 22 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 22 days.

[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01.

[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-01-01.

[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known in 13 days.

[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by stepan 17 days ago.

US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01.

A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01.

[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-05-13.

The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-10.

[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-05-14.

[Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-04-14.

[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14.

[Commodities] As of February 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of January 2020 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-02-14.

[Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-14.

[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14.

[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-11-14.

[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14.

[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14.

[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-14.

[Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known in 26 days.

[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )