Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.

It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.

Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31.

Functional Jubilee in the US ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-02-13.

Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31.

Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01.

Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16.

Sargon of Akkad gets cut from youtube ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-08-15.

My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01.

Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09.

ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.

Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-08-12; known on 2018-11-10.

Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known in 28 days.

The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19.

Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19.

There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 80% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01.

Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03.

Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03.

Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26.

The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known 2 days ago.

Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.

Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01.

I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known in 11 days.

Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15.

Zuckerberg in prison ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31.