PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	68%	77%	88%	93%
Sample Size	9306	12803	13304	13683	25246	6765	81107

A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.

A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.

The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.

The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04.

I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31.

Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known 4 days ago.

Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.

Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known 4 days ago.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood 4 days ago.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood 29 days ago.

At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.

US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.

Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by atharva117 on 2020-02-15; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by atharva117 on 2020-02-16.

Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.

swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known 15 days ago; judged right by playablecharacter 15 days ago.

Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.

Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.

Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.

The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known in 17 days; judged wrong by enolan 27 days ago.

IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.

Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.

Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.

Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.

Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.

Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.

Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.

Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.

Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.

Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.

Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.

Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.

Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 35% confidence; 36 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 3 days ago.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )