PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10707	14740	15278	16031	29258	7657	93671

The AMC stock will go through a short squeeze, where the stock will reach at least US$ 100/ea, but it could potentially reach more than US$ 500/ea. ( 70% confidence )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2021-08-09; known on 2022-01-04.

Ng Thị Tần 52 U tá tràng xâm lấn túi mật hay u túi mật xâm lấn tá tràng? Khí trong đường mật có phải do k tá tràng xâm lấn thông với đường mật không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known 28 days ago; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.

Trần thị huê 39 Adenoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known 22 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.

Malaysia will get the first gold medal in Olympic Tokyo 2021 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-07; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-08-19.

Ngô Đăng Khoa 66 u túi mật xâm lấn gan ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known 24 days ago; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 20 days ago.

Nguyễn Ngọc Cường 41 Dot sign Rathke cleft cyst 80% Macroadenoma 10% ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.

Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26.

Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.

Phạm Duy Luận 56 Neuroenteric Cyst https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214751920304138 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known 28 days ago.

Cao Xuân Hòa 34 U não ngấm thuốc viền, trung tâm dịch, tăng sinh mạch mạnh. GBM ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known 28 days ago.

Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02.

Nothing ( 100% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-08-02; known on 2021-08-02.

Nguyễn Thị Hoa 68 Chordoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-08-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.

A2 ( 93% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by davatk on 2021-07-31.

Trịnh văn ngọc 25 2100074420 Multifocal GBM Anh Khuyên: glioma/ TS ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-30; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-14.

On July 27th, I took 0.5g of tumeric, 0.5g of Cinnamon, and Sleepytime tea around 6:30pm. I thought that I would wake up feeling well rested. ( 65% confidence )

Created by parallax on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-07-29; judged wrong by parallax on 2021-07-29.

Vũ Thị Tăng 66 Meningioma at right cerebellapontine angle ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 20 days ago.

Cầm Văn Truyền 17 PA hố sau: 70% ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 28 days ago.

COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-28; known in 10 days.

Personal – I prepare and send text by deadline. ( 72% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-27; known on 2021-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-28.

TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2021-07-26; known on 2025-01-01.

Mai Anh Tú 44 56931 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-15.

Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09.

Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-02; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.

The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.

Coal burning will amount for less than 5% of the energy consumed in Germany by the year 2035 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2035-01-01.

In the federal elections in Germany 2021 on Sept 26th, the center-right parties CDU+CSU will receive the majority of votes. ( 98% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known in 6 days.

Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-08-13; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06.

Junior doctor's will strike against the decision of a 3% rise ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-22; known on 2022-07-01.

Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01.

New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.

Between August 1 and December 31 2021, the UK will experience a 24 hour period where over 1,000 Covid related deaths are recorded ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2021-07-19; known on 2022-01-01.

NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-08-18.

< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by sjy 23 days ago.

Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.

Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-19.

X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.

COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2022-01-01.

Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.

Wallat J Granulom/Fettgewebsnekrose und keine Endometriose ( 80% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-07-08; known on 2021-07-26.

The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 40% confidence )