PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10896	15100	15616	16319	29756	7772	95459

The storm will be “bad” in NY (3 in. rain) History ( 20% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-04.

I will find my niche within EA ( 10% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known 16 days ago.

I will reflect back on today as a disappointment ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

My wife will feel better. Because of past track record, circumstances of her condition ( 80% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-09-02; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-03.

I will have a new job by the end of the year, or will have change the project I am working on significantly ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2021-08-29; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Jeedo 16 days ago.

Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08.

Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2021-10-22; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.

Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02.

We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.

Nguyen Luong Nhat Anh 15 glioma doi thi ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

Phan anh trường ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

I will have at least 4 headaches this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

After recovering, my back will go out again within three weeks ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-10-21.

Personal – Successfully make it home without getting stranded by 03:00AM 2021-08-25 after being in London during 2021-08-24. ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-25.

The New York Giants will lose. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-29; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

Biden’s approval will fall by 1%. ( 65% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-09-20.

By end of 2025, bound better than than Omega(N) >(302/113)omega(N) + C known of for all odd perfect numbers N. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-21; known on 2026-01-01.

Reminiscence with Hugh Jackson (released on the 20th of August) will not have an audience score in the 60 percentile (60%-69%) here. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cgopher on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by cgopher on 2021-08-25.

Hpe inguinal node biopsy. Rn 1044418. Reactive node? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-09-24; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.

Long segment colonic marked wall thickening. Ascites. Lymphadenopathies. Long HIV infection. Hpe: colonic lymphoma. Rn 1069762. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-11-18.

Cystic intracranial mass. Hpe low grade astrocytoma? Brain abscess unlikely. Rn 1070182. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-08-27.

Hpe. Lymphoma? Massive hepatosplenomegaly with lymphadenopathies. Rn 1018220 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25.

Mediastinal mass with multiple hyperdense cortical brain lesions. Hpe of mediastinal mass. Lymphoma? TB? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.

Hpe large retroperitoneal cystic mass. RN 1018781. Mucinous cystadenocarcinoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-10-15.

Đặng Thị Nguyệt 44 U nang thân tụy thông với ống tụy IPMN ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-17; known on 2021-08-31.

Đặng quốc đại 81 U đồi thị Gbm or glioma ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-16; known on 2021-08-23; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.

Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-22. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.

World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.

Trần xuân nam 17 Rò dnt xoang sàng trước ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Phạm thị xuân thu 46 tvdd di trú ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

Personal, Productivity – I finish due flashcards for the day by deadline. ( 91% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-08-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-15.

Nguyễn đăng cảnh 80 Chondrosarcoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

Afghanistan – Taliban capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2026-09-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.

[I will get married in] 2023 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

[I will get married in] 2022 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

[I will get married in] 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

Trần Đình Thoàn 30 Ependymoma or oligodendroglioma ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-09-02.

nguyễn văn sơn 48 76 059 astrocytoma tủy ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26.

trần thị thảo 41 Lao hay di căn đơn ổ lao 60% di căn 10% khác? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki log by deadline. ( 74% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-13.

Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki backlog by deadline. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-10; known on 2021-08-11; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-12.

The AMC stock will go through a short squeeze, where the stock will reach at least US$ 100/ea, but it could potentially reach more than US$ 500/ea. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2021-08-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by alfredbaudisch 15 days ago.

Ng Thị Tần 52 U tá tràng xâm lấn túi mật hay u túi mật xâm lấn tá tràng? Khí trong đường mật có phải do k tá tràng xâm lấn thông với đường mật không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Trần thị huê 39 Adenoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Malaysia will get the first gold medal in Olympic Tokyo 2021 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-07; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-08-19.

Ngô Đăng Khoa 66 u túi mật xâm lấn gan ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

Nguyễn Ngọc Cường 41 Dot sign Rathke cleft cyst 80% Macroadenoma 10% ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26.

Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.

Phạm Duy Luận 56 Neuroenteric Cyst https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214751920304138 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known on 2021-08-24.

Cao Xuân Hòa 34 U não ngấm thuốc viền, trung tâm dịch, tăng sinh mạch mạnh. GBM ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known on 2021-08-24; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27.

Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02.

Nothing ( 100% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-08-02; known on 2021-08-02.

Nguyễn Thị Hoa 68 Chordoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-08-03; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.

A2 ( 93% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by davatk on 2021-07-31.

Trịnh văn ngọc 25 2100074420 Multifocal GBM Anh Khuyên: glioma/ TS ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-30; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-14.

On July 27th, I took 0.5g of tumeric, 0.5g of Cinnamon, and Sleepytime tea around 6:30pm. I thought that I would wake up feeling well rested. ( 65% confidence )

Created by parallax on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-07-29; judged wrong by parallax on 2021-07-29.

Vũ Thị Tăng 66 Meningioma at right cerebellapontine angle ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-01.

Cầm Văn Truyền 17 PA hố sau: 70% ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.

COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-28; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.

Personal – I prepare and send text by deadline. ( 72% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-27; known on 2021-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-28.

TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2021-07-26; known on 2025-01-01.

Mai Anh Tú 44 56931 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-15.

Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09.

Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-02; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.

The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.

Coal burning will amount for less than 5% of the energy consumed in Germany by the year 2035 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2035-01-01.

In the federal elections in Germany 2021 on Sept 26th, the center-right parties CDU+CSU will receive the majority of votes. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-09-27; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-27.

Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-08-13; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06.

Junior doctor's will strike against the decision of a 3% rise ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-22; known on 2022-07-01.

Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01.

New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.

Between August 1 and December 31 2021, the UK will experience a 24 hour period where over 1,000 Covid related deaths are recorded ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2021-07-19; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by gurgus 17 days ago.

NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known 18 days ago; judged right by kronicd on 2021-08-18.

< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-08-29.

Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.

Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-19.

X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.

COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 17 days ago.

Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.

Wallat J Granulom/Fettgewebsnekrose und keine Endometriose ( 80% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-07-08; known on 2021-07-26.

The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 40% confidence )