PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10491	14423	14919	15676	28689	7539	91737

Recent Predictions

Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02.
Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22.
Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 2% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 80% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
≥1 additional major tech company (FAANG, Twitter, Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Square, and others ≥~5,000 employees at my discretion) with a Bay Area HQ announces in 2021 move of HQ to either Los Angeles (actual move can happen after 2021). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01.
Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )

Created by pdf on 2021-02-22; known on 2021-06-15.
sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.
in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02.
Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.
Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.
Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged right by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16.
Will talk with Mali today ( 85% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
Everyone will be at the EA meeting tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-17; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Taylorb on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16.
Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known 28 days ago; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
Abi and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 99% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known 28 days ago; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
[Self] I have meditated at least 11 of 14 days from now until March ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-02-26.
[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01.
[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-07-01.
COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01.
Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-06-01.
Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.
Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021 ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.
Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.
Teddy will go to Annisquam ( 80% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-14.
ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-03-02; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-03-11.
[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by meedstrom about 17 hours ago.