PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10578	14563	15092	15832	28995	7572	92632

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-03-31.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.

I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.

I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 35% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 25% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01.

I will get a first vaccine shot by end of may ( 75% confidence )

Created by dstephens99 on 2021-03-30; known 23 days ago; judged right by dstephens99 22 days ago.

I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-04-22; judged right by dmwit on 2021-04-22.

Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.

Heike Behnke gct ( 80% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-03-26; known on 2021-04-01.

Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged right by lui on 2021-03-29.

SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.

Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.

The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.

Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01.

I won't wake up sick tommorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by sallatik on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-03-23.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.

Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.

Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known 23 days ago; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.

I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known in 7 days; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.

I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known 23 days ago; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.

I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.

humans on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

My bike will be where I left it yesterday, near Helenelund station. #crime #environment ( 85% confidence )

Created by sallatik on 2021-03-20; known on 2021-03-20; judged right by sallatik on 2021-03-20.

Based on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBdcRGsqr8 The one in the blue dress was the mole. ( 50% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-19; known on 2021-03-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-19.

I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by vcavallo on 2021-03-18; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by vcavallo on 2021-04-01.

Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.

COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.

COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.

COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.

Personal, Productivity – I extend my choiceworthiness model in Guestimate with cash transfers by deadline. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-17.

Personal, Productivity – I read (not necessarily make flashcards for) another chapter of my math textbook by deadline. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make flashcards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-20.

India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Daniel wants to talk with me about his podcast. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-11; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-11.

andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.

COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.

RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15.

RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known 9 days ago.

If SpaceX's SN10 launch happens today, it will land successfully, defined as upright and with no explosions. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-03-03; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-04.

A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by kadavy 22 days ago.

Statistics

Recent Predictions