Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10401 | 14255 | 14735 | 15447 | 28071 | 7482 | 90391 |
Recent Predictions
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I currently have COVID-19 ( 6% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-12-03; known on 2020-12-17; judged wrong by technillogue on 2020-12-10.
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Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.
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Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.
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Will China officially launch a coordinated campaign to discourage meat-eating (either through coercion or incentives) by 2050? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2051-01-01.
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The queen of England will be killed by muslims(aka terrorists). ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01; known in 15 days; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-02.
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I will be able to plan out a schedule for the week and stick to it ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-04.
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I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01.
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Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by korakos 15 days ago.
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I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by platypus42 11 days ago.
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Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, ( 80% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known in 25 days.
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I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by larssa on 2020-11-25; known on 2020-11-26; judged right by larssa on 2020-11-30.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known in 5 days.
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The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-24.
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The daily high temp in Portland will be below 53F. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23.
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Trump will have conceded defeat in the presidential election. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-24.
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The 7-day rolling average of postive test % will be above 12% for Oregon. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23.
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Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-18; known on 2020-11-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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When I check, there will turn out to have been historical examples of hacks/attacks on pharmaceutical companies ( 55% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-18; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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Apple made <25% profits in 2019 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-16.
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There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01.
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I will go one week without eating candy ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-22; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-25.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17.
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COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 13 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known in 1 day; judged right by jbeshir 7 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by jbeshir 13 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known in 6 days.
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Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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President Trump will stand down from the presidential office ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BillEBrogan on 2020-11-12; known on 2020-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-24.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.
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European pharma companies do not have significantly lower profits than American pharma companies. (In 2019 or earlier) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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The US Military's $375M spending on robotics is less than the private sector's investment in self-driving cars ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known in 16 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 16 days ago.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by LukeS 9 days ago.