Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11370 | 15851 | 16307 | 17039 | 30591 | 7888 | 99046 |
Recent Predictions
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I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 ( 45% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known in 28 days.
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80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 68% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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2206041762 Hình ảnh các khối u trong ống sống ngang mức T12—>L2 và L4—>S2, theo dõi Myxopapillary ependymoma, chèn ép nón tủy và đuôi ngựa ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-22; known on 2022-07-13.
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Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.
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5 or more people on the second meeting EA ( 95% confidence )
Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-18.
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Monkeypox reaches 50 in MA by July 1st ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-01.
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CS gas used indoors in the US before 2029 ( 16% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2022-06-12; known on 2028-01-01.
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Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known in 28 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-24.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-01.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.
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Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )
Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known in 28 days; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 8 days ago.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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2205048464 dày thành đại tràng sigma ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-15.
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2205049129 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải, có nốt đặc hạn chế khuếch tán và ngấm thuốc ở thành (ORADS 4). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2205053916 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải có vỏ và vách mỏng ngấm thuốc, ranh giới rõ (O-RADS 3). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2104041357 LÊ THỊ HỒNG HIỂN Hình ảnh cấu trúc dạng nang nằm sát bờ dưới khớp cùng chậu phải, dịch bên trong không đồng nhất => Sinh thiết: ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-08.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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2102013739 PHẠM VĂN LUÂN nang cạnh sụn chêm trong ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-01; known on 2022-06-22.
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The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known on 2025-01-25.
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The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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2205042200 VŨ DUY VỊNH Hình ảnh u thận phải, có phần thải thuốc và có vỏ- nghĩ đến RCC. Nang nhỏ thận phải. Nang nhỏ gan. Theo dõi sỏi thận trái ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205043310 Hamartoma hạ đồi ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-09; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known in 28 days.
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oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known in 28 days.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-05-27.
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220504464 pilocystic astrocytoma tiểu não phải ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205041948 ung thư hay viêm tiền liệt tuyến ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-15; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205020046 Hình ảnh khối u sùi lớn trực tràng giữa, có nhiều hạch lân cận, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, theo dõi xâm lấn mạch máu (T3cN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (+)). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2201007768 Hình ảnh u trực tràng thấp, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, mạch máu, có nhiều hạch trong và ngoài cân trực tràng (T3bN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (-)) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205044054 Rò hậu môn áp xe gian cơ thắt, lỗ trong 6h ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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Prediction 5: True ( 60% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 4: True ( 70% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 3: True ( 55% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 2: True ( 40% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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Prediction 1: True ( 50% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
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3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
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e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known in 28 days.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known in 28 days; judged right by oakbound on 2022-06-01.
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2205034201 sán lá gan?? Bạch cầu ưa acid 50% ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205036329 VÕ THỊ TRANG Viêm đường mật do IgG4 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205036197 NGUYỄN THỊ THÚY Kí sinh trùng áp xe gan? ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-06-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205037123 HOÀNG THỊ LÙNG u ác tính xâm lấn đầu xương cánh tay? di căn? sarcoma xương ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-20; known on 2022-05-23; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205026563 VY VĂN HỢP Giãn đường mật trong gan, nhiều hạch hoại tử dọc ĐM chủ=> Klatskin hay so sán lá gan??? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-19; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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1901019297 NGUYỄN VĂN THÁI u dưới niêm mạc thực quản: GIST/ leiomyoma? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-18; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205027885 NGUYỄN PHƯƠNG MAI Khối đặc giảm âm, ngấm thuốc kém nhu mô lách/ U máu gan => có phải u máu lách không điển hình không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-18; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16; judged right by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27.
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I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.
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A week goes by without any more attempted mass shootings/attacks in the US ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known in 29 days; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-20.
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Clouduknguyen_95 realizes he can make predictions in private mode (“visible to creator”), and decides to stop leaking people's medical information ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known in 28 days; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-19.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205026284 NGUYỄN THỊ THẢO Hình ảnh khối tổ chức ngấm thuốc khoang cảnh bên phải – theo dõi Schwannoma dây X (chưa loại trừ u cuộn cảnh). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-05-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205012150 TÔ THU HÀ Lymphocytic hypophysitis hay u tuyến yên???? ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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NGUYỄN NGỌC HẢI 2205026787 Rách thân – sừng sau sụn chêm trong độ III ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-16; known on 2022-05-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01; judged right by LouisLC on 2022-11-01.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known in 28 days; judged right by Tot 12 days ago.
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2205009708 DƯƠNG THỊ HÒA tổn thương chứa máu bán cấp phần phụ bên phải – theo dõi nang lạc nội mạc tử cung. Buồng trứng đa nang hai bên. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2205018514 ĐẶNG NHƯ HIẾU Orbital myositis ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2002000730 LÊ QUANG HƯNG Ganglion cyst khuỷu trái ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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2204044707 PHAN THỊ TỚI Hình ảnh theo dõi lạcnội mạc trong cơ tử cung lan tỏa. Nhân xơ tử cung. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-12; known on 2022-05-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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increasingly strict regulations on hrt, surgery, for adults. in particular, rules that impact clinics' ability to provide drugs and surgeries in the next 4 years. ( 76% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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CL will not win the next N23 trivia quiz ;-) ( 89% confidence )
Created by TheOrme on 2022-05-05; known in 27 days.
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Madison Cawthorn reelected ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-05; known in 28 days; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known in 28 days.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known in 28 days.