Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9618 | 13123 | 13705 | 14306 | 26068 | 6987 | 83807 |
Recent Predictions
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Politics, US – Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 14 days ago; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 14 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 10 days ago.
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COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 13 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 10 days ago.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 13 days ago.
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Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01.
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US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-10-01.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01.
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Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ralph Nader will hit age 100 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2035-01-01.
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There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known in 17 days.
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Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-09-01.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 65% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.
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I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 75% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I exercise by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-31; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-31.
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Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 12 days ago.
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Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Politics, US – One or more police officers arrested or has a case brought to a grand jury in connection with death of George Floyd by end of June 2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 14 days ago; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-29.
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Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 12 days ago.
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Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 12 days ago.
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Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 10 days ago.
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Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22.
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Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 ( 80% confidence )
Created by smodnix on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-05-23.
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The car outside is my papa john’s delivery ( 70% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-05-28; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28.
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It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 30% confidence )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-27; known on 2020-12-25.
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Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022 ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2020-05-27; known on 2022-05-27.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode ( 60% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known 20 days ago.
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All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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T will come to the party tomorrow ( 40% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged wrong by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-01.