PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	58%	67%	76%	88%	92%
Sample Size	8249	11273	11521	11508	22727	6042	71320

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 ( 70% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2025-01-01.

I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030 ( 60% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2030-01-02.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.

The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by enolan 29 days ago.

The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.

I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 35% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.

I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

SHA256: 452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2019-07-18; known on 2019-10-18.

U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-12-31.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )