[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.

I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.

By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.

I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2024-01-01.

I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )

Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.

I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.

China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

Will I attend a party celebrating the eradication of smallpox on smallpox eradication day (9 dec) next year. The party can be organised by me or by someone else. It will count as a party if we are 4 or more people and we are doing party like things. ( 80% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.

Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )

Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.

Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.

By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.

Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.

Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.

Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Cameron will be 81.6kg 1 month from when he purchased his walking pad ( 50% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-30.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known on 2023-03-01.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.