Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher.
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
- komponisto estimated 50% on 2010-09-29
- komponisto said “Represents update from base rate of about 33%. Verdict expected in January or February according to reports, but delays in court proceedings seem to be common.” on 2010-09-29
- gwern estimated 25% and said “I don’t know anything beyond what I saw on LW, but it would be very embarrassing to have an acquittal and thus cynicism argues against it.” on 2010-09-29
- Larks estimated 10% and said “20” on 2010-09-29
- komponisto said “Responses so far are interesting. Are folks taking into account the relatively high rate of such reversals (1/3) in the Italian system? ” on 2010-09-30
- Jack estimated 50% and said “Piggybacking on komponisto given that I know he follows the issue closely relative to myself.” on 2010-10-10
- komponisto estimated 60% and said “Updated after court agreed to reexamine the DNA results, appointing two professors from the University of Rome – La Sapienza to conduct the review.” on 2010-12-22
- Actuary estimated 95% and said “With current attention, it is too risky for new judge not to acquit unless convincing evidence comes forward (5% chance of that)” on 2011-02-11
- komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-06-01” on 2011-06-01
- komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-07-01” on 2011-06-30
- komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-09-01” on 2011-06-30
- komponisto estimated 80% on 2011-06-30
- Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-07-01
- Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, justice” on 2011-09-04
- Ken estimated 75% on 2011-09-13
- gwern estimated 0% and said “media is saying Monday” on 2011-10-01
- komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-10-01” on 2011-10-01
- Actuary judged this prediction right on 2011-10-03.
- Actuary said “This is easy” on 2011-10-03
- gwern said “ref: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/03/501364/main20114867.shtml” on 2011-10-03
- gwern judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-03.
- gwern estimated 25% on 2011-10-03
- gwern said “fix my prediction, not sure how I put in 0%, especially that recently, after the report tore apart the DNA evidence” on 2011-10-03
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2011-10-03.