The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season.

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.

  • papermachine estimated 40% on 2011-08-03
  • gwern estimated 5% and said “plurality voting has huge pressures for two party system, fragmenation would be massive self-sabotage (cf. teddy roosevelt)on 2011-08-03
  • gwern said “also, how would we judge this? I was assuming a formal split with multiple nominees polling >10% of the populace or something…on 2011-08-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-08-03
  • Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-08-06
  • muflax estimated 2% on 2011-11-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “I could see a Blue Dog flight if OWS drives the party to the left, but they’d be unlikely to form a new party. More likely they’d be absorbed by the Republicans or Libertarians, whichever are seen as being most centrist.on 2011-11-12
  • Athrelon estimated 0% on 2012-09-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2012-09-28
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-02
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% and said “Nope.on 2016-01-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-01-10
  • Raahul_Kumar  judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-16.

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