SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-12-21
• Anubhav estimated 35% and said “Megaupload pushes this up… ” on 2011-12-21
• Jayson Virissimo said “yeah, Megaupload has a significantly higher than zero probability of being shutdown even without SOPA” on 2011-12-21
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/8xl/is_anyone_else_worried_about_sopa_trying_to_do/5hl8?context=1#5hl8” on 2011-12-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-12-21
• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-21
• muflax estimated 25% and said “agreed, MU is the relevant part here” on 2011-12-21
• Grognor said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4945 not sure why the conjunction is being added to this” on 2011-12-22
• Jayson Virissimo said “because that’s my interpretation of the prediction in the comment I linked to” on 2011-12-22
• Serge estimated 12% on 2011-12-22
• Christopher estimated 10% on 2011-12-30
• Larklight estimated 30% on 2012-01-03
• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-01-10
• Anubhav estimated 40% and said “Megaupload down. This prediction is now identical to http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4945” on 2012-01-20
• Christopher estimated 20% on 2012-01-21
• Christopher   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-25.