Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.

At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.

Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.

A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31.

Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.

No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.

At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2033-01-01.

Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.

South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.

Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2033-01-01.

The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.

'Islands in the Net' style skin-browning agent made possible through PCR ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2033-01-01.

At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.

“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.

“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.

Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.

As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.

I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.

A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.

My directness in communication will increase proportional to the amount of life expereinces that I have. I will also be less tolerant towards people trying to be dishonest for the sake of being polite. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Prownie on 2023-08-24; known on 2033-08-24.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.

Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.

Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.

A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.

There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.

By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2034-01-01.

“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.

By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.

Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2034-01-01.

There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.

By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.

In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.

Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.

I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.