Upcoming Predictions
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“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.
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Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )
Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Varun Grover thinks “No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise” link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by volis on 2020-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.