PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

In 3 years, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-05-14.

Nunes will beat Pennington at UFC 224. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2018-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-13.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 6 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-13.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Hamburger SV does not lose to Borussia Mönchengladbach ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Schalke 04 does not lose Eintracht Frankfurt ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Bayern Munich does not lose to Stuttgart ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Wolfsburg does not lose FC Köln ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Freiburg beats Augsburg ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Hoffenheim does not lose to Borussia Dortmund ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Mainz 05 does not lose to Werder Bremen ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Hannover 96 ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie uses some variation on Hippimancy to neutralise Jillian. ( 17% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-11.

Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie uses some variation on Eyemancy to neutralise Jillian. ( 13% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2018-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-11.

[Primeira Liga – Round 34] Chaves does not lose to Desportivo das Aves ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Ligue 2 – Round 38] RC Lens does not lose to AJ Auxerre ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[EFL Championship – Promotion play-offs ] Fulham does not lose to Derby County ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Scottish Premiership Playoffs – Semi-final second leg] Livingston does not lose to Dundee United ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Ligue 1 – Round 37] Guingamp does not lose to Marseille ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Ligue 2 – Round 38] Nancy does not lose to US Orléans ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF first leg ] Club Tijuana does not lose to Deportivo Toluca ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF first leg ] Santos Laguna does not lose to América ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Premier League – Round 31] Manchester United does not lose to West Ham ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Santos FC beats Luverdense ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Flamengo does not lose to Ponte Preta ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Corinthians beats Vitória ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Atlético PR does not lose to Newell's Old Boys ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-11; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-05-10.

[Superliga Argentina – Round 25] Boca Juniors does not lose to Gimnasia LP ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Torneo Intermedio Uruguay – Group A ] Nacional beats Fénix ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Temuco does not lose to Estudiante Mérida ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Botafogo does not lose to Audax Italiano ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] São Paulo FC beats Rosário Central ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Bahia does not lose to Vasco da Gama ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Grêmio does not lose to Goiás ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa do Brasil – Round of 16 first leg] Palmeiras does not lose to América Mineiro ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Philadelphia will beat Boston. ( 72% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-10.

I will get a 5 on the APUSH exam. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-07-13; judged right by thebaelfire on 2018-05-10.

[Superliga Argentina – Round 25] Racing Club does not lose to Arsenal Sarandí ( 80% confidence )