PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

ITA will be up MoM at end of May. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.

KOSPI will be down EOM. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-25; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.

I will make it to hiking if it is on Saturday June 2nd ( 30% confidence )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2018-06-02.

Politics, US – New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018. ( 55% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

Politics, Ireland – At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

Personal – I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

Personal – I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

Personal – I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.

I will write and post a text explaining how humans' everyday decisions and reasoning are actually probability theory (with flaws) and vnm rationality (again, with flaws) ( 4% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-06-01.

In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2018-06-01.

Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.

I have exercised 100 days this year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31.

I will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-30.

I read 12+ books this year ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.

I go to at least 2 music concerts ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.

Kristofic to beat Raska at Oktagon 6 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

Tsarukyan to beat Pfister at KLF/MFP 220 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

Dias to beat Machado at Shooto Brasil 84 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.

[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.

HLSGives generates 30 career 1FTW pledges ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-26.

The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-11-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2018-05-26.

The referendum on the Irish 8th Amendment will pass. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-26.

Politics, Venezuela – Nicolas Maduro announced as winner of the 2018 presidential elections. ( 72% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-05-26.

Vamos conseguir trabalhar na tradução do livro Doing Good Better do Will MacAskill ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by guisamora on 2017-06-26; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by guisamora on 2018-05-25.

I will get an offer for contract work with $60/hour rate. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-24.

I will see Les Mis ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

I do not visit a foreign country for 7+ days ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

I do not travel to Asia, Europe, or South America ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

I will earn a P in Criminal Procedure ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.

I will get a P in Corporations ( 75% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.

I will get a P in Antitrust ( 85% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.

I will get an H in Legal Profession ( 65% confidence )