Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The FOURIER trial of a PSCK9 inhibitor will not show a statistically significant improvement in its primary endpoint. ( 90% confidence )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2018-06-23.
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OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-23.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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Germany to beat Mexico June 17 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-17.
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Personal – I will be free to go to the movies on Saturday 16 June. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-06-11; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by moyamo on 2018-06-17.
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“Avengers: Infinity War” will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-17.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, Golden State will beat Cleveland. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-06-01; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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I think the Warriors will win the NBA Finals ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Scolyke on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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By the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates ( 1% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-27; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-06-15.
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Tech – Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jamesrom on 2018-06-13.
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Wenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-31; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Janssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Seiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Benkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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RVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina ( 53% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
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Whittaker beats Romero at UFC 225 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, South America – Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, Spain – Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Krantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-09.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-08.
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Andre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-08.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-07.
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French rail strike will end before 15th May in favour of the government. ( 60% confidence )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-05-15; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-07.
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At least 814 docking stations of public bike sharing service Velib to be installed in Paris by June 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-06-06.
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Popov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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Ngeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.