Man City will winn Barclays Premier league. ( 35% confidence )

Created by giedrius on 2017-05-18; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Trump will leave office early instead of being impeached. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Dr K on 2018-01-07; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Team of England will not participate to Work Cup 2018. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-06-19; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

el-sayed wins primary ( 15% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

The Elysium (2013) will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 90m), but will be a cult favorite 5 years from now ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-08-09; known on 2018-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.

The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.

E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2018-07-28; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-08-28.

I am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

I rent a place in Arizona ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-27.

Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.

Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.

UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-08-10; judged wrong by bm on 2018-08-17.

My relationship with my girlfriend lasts at least until the end of 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by avi on 2018-06-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by avi on 2018-08-13.

In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.

Politics, US – An additional state after Illinois ratifies the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of July 2018. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Business, UK – Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Politics, US – A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

At least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-03.